Bitcoin (BTC), 4 Consecutive 'Declines' After Midterm Elections... Will There Be a Bloodbath This Year Too?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD), US Election/AI-generated image

With past patterns confirming that Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently experienced sharp declines after US midterm elections, market caution is growing ahead of the November elections.

According to financial media outlet Benzinga on September 29 (local time), crypto market analyst Ali Martinez stated that Bitcoin experienced steep declines immediately after each of the four US midterm elections held since 2010. Bitcoin plummeted by 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, respectively. Martinez noted that while it cannot be concluded that the elections themselves directly caused the declines, attention should be paid to this cyclical trend ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Historically, fourth-quarter performances have also shown mixed trends with notable volatility rather than unilateral gains. Bitcoin surged by 391% in Q4 2010 but fell by 16.7% in Q4 2014, by 42.16% in Q4 2018, and by 14.75% in Q4 2022. This analysis suggests that contrary to expectations of a seasonal rally, the fourth quarter of election years has been accompanied by significant price corrections.

Martinez proposed a strategy to utilize the bearish phase that appears after the election as a buying opportunity. He advised, “After confirming a bearish trend immediately after the election, one should aim to enter around the $73,000 mark, which is the average cost basis for short-term holders and has served as a key defense line in past bull market corrections.” He explained that if the $82,000 level is maintained, a mid-term ascent towards $100,000 is possible, but in the short term, downward pressure up to $73,000 should be anticipated.

Political uncertainty is also adding to market caution. Recent polls by Reuters and Ipsos show President Trump's approval rating at 32%, the lowest across both his terms, and the Republican party lagging in congressional election polls, raising concerns about policy uncertainty due to shifts in the political landscape. Experts assess that while political outcomes may not directly lead to sell-offs, special attention is needed for liquidity contraction and increased volatility before and after elections.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin experienced sharp declines ranging from 27% to 72% immediately after each of the four US midterm elections held since 2010.

-Historically, fourth-quarter performances also recorded declines three times, repeatedly exposing high volatility during election seasons.

-The analyst suggested the area around the $73,000 support level, which is the average cost basis for short-term holders, as a key buying zone during post-election corrections.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*