to leave a comment.
▲ Crypto (cryptocurrency) ©CoinReaders
The virtual asset market was pushed down again by security concerns following a large-scale Bitget hack and caution ahead of the release of US inflation data. The total market capitalization fell by 0.98% in 24 hours to $2.85 trillion, and whether the $2.8 trillion support level can be defended has emerged as a key variable determining the short-term direction.
According to cryptocurrency market aggregator CoinMarketCap on September 30 (local time), the direct catalyst for the market decline was a hacking incident in which approximately $388 million was stolen from Bitget's hot wallet. As it was reported that the attacker had infiltrated the exchange's system for 25 days, concerns about the risk of asset storage in centralized exchanges spread, leading to risk aversion and selling pressure across the broader market, beyond specific assets.
Profit-taking following recent sharp increases also put pressure on the market. The virtual asset market rose by approximately 43% in the third quarter, and the average breakeven point for Bitcoin (BTC) ETF investors recently exceeded approximately $81,722. As movements to realize accumulated profits during the upward trend emerged, coupled with rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions, investor caution increased. The correlation between the virtual asset market and the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 also stood at 81%, indicating a significant impact from macroeconomic variables.
The market's attention is focused on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to be released today. Analysis suggests that if inflation is higher than expected, concerns about interest rate hikes will increase, potentially testing the virtual asset market's total capitalization at the key Fibonacci support level of $2.8 trillion. Conversely, if inflation comes in lower than expected, macroeconomic burdens could ease, providing room for the market to regain stability.
In the short term, maintaining the range of $2.8 trillion to $2.85 trillion is crucial. If support is established above $2.8 trillion, the recent decline might remain a short-term correction, but if that level is breached, the risk of further losses increases. Simultaneously, to offset the investment sentiment (Sentiment) worsened by the hacking incident, the continued inflow of institutional spot ETF funds is also considered a key factor.
Ultimately, this decline is analyzed as a result of the simultaneous impact of security concerns due to the Bitget hack, profit-taking after a strong third-quarter rise, and macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the PCE release. The market's next direction is likely to depend on the PCE results, whether the $2.8 trillion support holds, and demand for spot ETFs. For the time being, rather than resuming the recent rally, the focus will be on whether a cautious sideways trend continues within key support areas.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning