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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Rise/AI Generated Image
The virtual asset market has officially entered an economic expansion phase after 50 months. With altcoin risk indicators remaining at their lowest levels, expectations for a widespread bull market are growing.
Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video uploaded on September 28 (local time) that his proprietary economic cycle model confirmed an expansion phase for the first time since June 2022. Gambardello explained, "A composite index combining manufacturing data from five regional Federal Reserve Banks under the Federal Reserve (Fed) has exceeded the baseline of 51 for three consecutive months. Following 53.8 in July and 55.2 in August, the Dallas Fed's September announcement recorded 53.2, marking a turning point for the 50-month bearish environment."
In conjunction with the economic expansion signal, overall risk indicators for virtual assets are pointing to an extremely low-risk zone. Gambardello noted, "The altcoin risk model score is merely 16, and Bitcoin (BTC) also has a long-term risk indicator hovering around 33." Compared to past cycle highs where overheating signals flooded the market, the current market risk remains in a historically very safe, early stage despite the recent price rebound.
Risk scores for individual major projects are also uniformly at their lowest levels. Chainlink (LINK), which connects traditional financial infrastructure to blockchain in conjunction with SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), recorded a long-term risk indicator of 34. Ethereum (ETH) is at 38, Cardano (ADA) at 21, and Sui (SUI) at 28, all maintaining attractive entry zones.
Gambardello advised calm position management, unaffected by short-term indicator slowdowns or macroeconomic variables. While artificial intelligence (AI) productivity innovations are driving growth, high oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and prolonged high interest rates were cited as variables that could still slow down the pace of economic recovery. Gambardello added, "As the possibility of data falling below the baseline again cannot be ruled out, rather than succumbing to blind optimism, meticulous prior planning is necessary to realize profits when risk indicators reach their peak."
[Article Key Summary]
-The proprietary economic cycle model has officially confirmed economic expansion, exceeding 51 for three consecutive months after 50 months.
-The altcoin risk index is reported as 16, and Bitcoin at 33, indicating that the overall market remains in an extremely low-risk zone.
-With major coins like Chainlink at 34 and Cardano at 21 showing low risk, a calm, segmented response strategy is required.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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