Will Dogecoin (DOGE) Hold $0.092? Short Bets Prevail Despite ETF and Whale Buying

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Dogecoin (DOGE) is testing its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.092, standing at a crossroads between further correction and rebound. Although US spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks and whale investors are utilizing the recent price drop as a buying opportunity, bearish bets dominate the derivatives market, indicating that a clear upward trend reversal still needs confirmation.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 29 (local time), DOGE traded at $0.093 on Tuesday, moving just above its 200-day EMA of $0.092. Institutional demand is relatively robust. SoSoValue data shows that US Dogecoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.89 million last week, continuing a positive trend for two consecutive weeks. However, as Monday's inflows were limited, the expansion of ETF net inflows this week is considered a variable for further upside.

Investor sentiment was mixed in the derivatives market. According to Coinglass, DOGE's Long-to-Short Ratio was 0.81 on Tuesday, close to its lowest level in the past month. A reading below 1 indicates that short positions, betting on price declines, are dominant. Conversely, the Funding Rate, which turned positive 10 days ago, rose to 0.0054%. The fact that long positions are paying fees to short positions suggests that bullish expectations still remain, thus no clear direction has emerged in the derivatives market.

Whale investors are utilizing the recent price correction as a buying opportunity. According to Santiment's Supply Distribution data, large wallets holding between 100,000-1 million DOGE, 1 million-10 million DOGE, and 10 million-100 million DOGE have collectively accumulated an additional 50 million DOGE since Sunday. The continued buying by large holders despite the price drop is interpreted as a signal that long-term investment demand is being maintained.

Technically, whether the $0.092 level is defended is key to determining the short-term trend. DOGE is trading above its 200-day EMA of $0.092 and the previous downtrend line at $0.091, with the 50-day EMA at $0.086 and 100-day EMA at $0.085 also providing support. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 55, indicating a buying advantage without overheating signals, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also maintained a slight positive territory. If $0.092 breaks, $0.091 and $0.088 will act as support levels consecutively, and further downside could open up a correction to $0.086-$0.085.

Conversely, if DOGE holds its 200-day EMA and rebounds, the first major resistance level is $0.102. A daily close above this price would open the possibility for further medium-term upside. While two consecutive weeks of spot ETF net inflows and whale accumulation of 50 million DOGE are providing support, bearish positions in the derivatives market are limiting upward momentum. Therefore, the ability to hold $0.092 and break $0.102 will determine the direction in the short term.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*