Bitcoin falls below $83,000…PCE is this week's watershed moment

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Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $83,000 despite massive inflows into spot ETFs, putting a brake on its short-term uptrend. With the US 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5.22% and the probability of an October interest rate hike rising to 70.3%, the defense of the $82,744 support level has emerged as a crossroads between a further decline to $80,000 and a re-challenge of $96,700.

According to investment media TradingNews on September 28 (local time), Bitcoin traded around $82,944, down 2.28% over 24 hours. The intraday low was approximately $82,700, breaking below the lower end of the $83,000-$85,000 box range maintained last weekend. This is about 5% lower than the high of $87,374 recorded on the 21st.

Institutional demand remains strong, but the pace of inflows is slowing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.39 billion last week, marking the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, and a continuous net inflow of approximately $3 billion over seven consecutive trading days since the 17th. However, daily net inflows steadily decreased from $999 million on the 21st to $714.7 million, $347 million, and $190.6 million, reaching $134.5 million on the 25th. The media analyzed that while ETF buying continued, it was not strong enough to absorb profit-taking.

The biggest concern is US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield reached 5.22%, its highest level since 2007, while the 5-year yield rose to 5.06% and the 30-year yield to 5.51%. The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates in October, as reflected by the federal funds futures market, also reached 70.3%. Furthermore, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil climbing to $96.33 per barrel and Brent crude to $106.55 is fueling inflation and concerns about further tightening.

Technically, $82,744 has been presented as the first key support level this week. If this price is breached on a daily closing basis, the psychological support level of $80,000 could be tested after $81,143. Conversely, if $85,100 is reclaimed, the technical burden from this decline could ease, and a breakthrough of $87,374 would set $96,700 as the next major resistance target. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) recently formed a Golden Cross, indicating that the medium-term upward structure is still intact.

Key variables that will determine the direction this week are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and US employment figures. The media predicted that if PCE and employment data come out strong, the 10-year yield could rise to 5.30%, potentially testing BTC at $80,000. Conversely, if inflation slows or oil prices fall, causing Treasury yields to drop below 5.1%, the possibility of an upward move towards $96,700 could reopen after recovering $85,100 and $87,374 in sequence. The baseline scenario suggests fluctuations within the $81,000-$85,500 range until the end of the quarter.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*