"It always rose in October"...Bitcoin (BTC) Uptober, will it work again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD), Wall Street / AI-generated image

As October, historically the strongest month for gains in the year, approaches, attention is focused on whether 'Uptober' will be replicated in the virtual asset market. While expectations for a seasonal bullish trend are spreading, caution has also been raised, reminding us of past instances where the market plummeted due to macroeconomic shocks.

According to U.Today, a virtual asset media outlet, on September 28 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) closed October with gains 10 out of 13 times from 2013 to 2025. The average return for October during this period was approximately 19%. While the seasonal bullish pattern of October has become a representative rally formula among market participants, the experience of 2025 proved that October does not guarantee an unconditional rise.

In October 2025, Bitcoin started at approximately $119,000 and surpassed $126,000, setting a new all-time high. The influx of $4.7 billion into US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the first half of the year alone drove the upward trend. However, as trade tensions between the US and China reignited, unprecedented large-scale forced liquidations occurred, causing the market to cool rapidly. Ultimately, the seven-year consecutive October rally was broken, with Bitcoin falling to the $105,000 level, ending the month with a 4% decline, and Ethereum (ETH) also showing a 6-7% decline.

The market environment approaching October 2026 shows a different trend compared to the past. Bitcoin surged 25% in August, followed by another approximately 9% increase in September, surpassing $87,000 to reach an eight-month high. Increased spot ETF inflows, short squeezes, and improved liquidity accelerated the upward momentum. Major altcoins such as Solana (SOL), XRP, NEAR, Chainlink (LINK), and Zcash (ZEC) also recorded significant gains throughout September, supporting overall market momentum.

Experts pointed out that while seasonal factors can strengthen existing upward trends, they cannot offset macroeconomic shocks. They warned that if a sharp upward trend continues with a significant level of optimism already priced in, the market could become vulnerable to short-term corrections due to leverage liquidations. Analysis suggests that a sustained rally would only be possible if spot ETF demand is maintained and macroeconomic stability is supported.

Amid a favorable liquidity environment, expectations for an October rally are higher than ever. The market's attention is focused on whether Bitcoin can overcome macroeconomic variables and once again prove the power of the traditional October bull market.

[Key Summary of the Article]

-Bitcoin (BTC) closed October with gains 10 out of the past 13 years, recording an average return of 19%.

-In October 2025, after reaching a high of $126,000, it closed down 4% due to large-scale liquidations caused by US-China tensions.

-With a 9% rebound in September 2026 and ETF inflows, defending against macroeconomic shocks is considered more crucial than seasonal factors.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*