If Bitcoin falls below $83,600, will it drop to $77,000? Breaking $84,800 is key.

▲ Bitcoin Plunge / ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged to $87,400 before falling back to the $83,000 range. The decline is attributed to a general weakness in the virtual asset market and profit-taking following the recent rally, rather than any specific negative news for Bitcoin itself.

According to cryptocurrency market data aggregator CoinMarketCap on September 28 (local time), Bitcoin recorded a 0.86% drop over 24 hours, trading at $83,745.62. The total market capitalization of all virtual assets also fell by 0.92% during the same period, mirroring Bitcoin's trend. After reaching an 8-month high near $87,400 recently, the overall market appears to be taking a breather.

The high correlation with the U.S. stock market also continues. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the past 7 days was 85.6%. No clear individual variables such as large-scale derivatives liquidations, regulatory announcements, or exchange fund flows that could trigger this decline were identified. Social investment sentiment remained positive at 5.11 out of 10 points, and spot ETF fund flows recorded net inflows early in the week.

In the short term, maintaining support at $83,618 is crucial. Bitcoin is currently moving between its recent swing low of $83,618 and the major resistance level of $84,800. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 35.29, approaching the oversold zone, which suggests a potential for a short-term rebound if the support level holds.

If Bitcoin breaks above $84,800 on a daily closing basis, an attempt to rise towards $90,000 is expected. Conversely, if the support level near $83,600 breaks, the correction range could expand, potentially testing a lower support zone near $77,000.

The market is focusing on the U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to be announced on September 30, as the next macroeconomic variable. CoinMarketCap analyzes Bitcoin's current movement as a neutral consolidation phase, digesting recent gains, and the defense of the $83,600 support level before the PCE announcement is considered a key variable in determining the short-term direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*