Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week Line After 10 Months…Is the Bear Market Really Over?

Bitcoin Reclaims 'Key Line' After 10 Months…Is the Bear Market Over? Next Hurdle: $83,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally reclaimed the 50-week moving average, a level it had not surpassed for over 10 months, raising expectations for the end of the bear market. As the recovery of this price level has historically served as a strong signal for a trend reversal in past bear markets, market attention is now focused on whether the 50-week line can be maintained and if $83,000 can be breached.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 21 (local time), Bitcoin closed its weekly candle at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, surpassing its 50-week moving average of $78,788. This marks the first time BTC has closed a week above its 50-week moving average since November 9, 2025, and this closing price is also the highest weekly closing price in the past four months.

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Research, analyzed in August that the 50-week moving average has acted as a ceiling in bear markets. He explained that in four out of five completed bear markets in the past, the bear market bottom was confirmed after BTC first broke above the 50-week moving average. Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, also cited a close above the 50-week line as a key signal for a bull market, stating that in 2017, 2020, and 2023, BTC surged 700-900% after breaching this level.

However, there is also caution that it is too early to confirm a cycle bottom with just one weekly close. Ryan Lee, Senior Analyst at Bitget, noted that while reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically tended to occur after major lows are formed and long-term momentum recovers, it is crucial whether BTC continues to hold above this line and form higher lows in the future. Galaxy also explained that out of 13 past instances where the 50-week moving average was re-crossed, a lower low subsequently occurred twice, both during the 2021-2022 bear market.

Market conditions are assessed to have improved compared to the beginning of the year. Lee analyzed that BTC has significantly recovered from its July low of $57,000, a significant portion of the leverage accumulated in the market through repeated liquidations has been resolved, and signs of institutional demand returning are also appearing. In contrast, cryptocurrency trader Craig Cobb presented $83,000 as a more critical benchmark than the 50-week moving average. He explained that if this price is broken, lower highs on the monthly chart would disappear, indicating the end of the downtrend.

Cobb also believes that further confirmation is needed on the three-month chart. He is watching for a pattern where consecutive bearish candles turn bullish, and the subsequent candle breaks above the high of the first bullish candle. Historically, such reversals have occurred 15 times. Of these, 11 instances where the high of the first bullish candle was surpassed all led to new all-time highs. He stated that the start of a bull market can only be confirmed after the $83,000 breakout, the close of the September three-month candle, and a subsequent breakout above the high.

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