Bitcoin breaks $83,000... SEC regulatory boon and 'technical signal in 45 weeks'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), rise/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) surged over 4% in a day, breaking past $83,000. With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s regulatory action regarding tokenized stocks boosting investor sentiment, coupled with a technical breakthrough of recovering the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, the possibility of an additional rise into the $84,000 range is drawing attention.

According to cryptocurrency market data aggregator CoinMarketCap on September 21 (local time), Bitcoin recorded an increase of 4.22% over the past 24 hours, reaching $83,697.12. This surpassed the overall cryptocurrency market's rise of 3.36% during the same period. The correlation with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the past 7 days was also 0.67. The main background for this surge was identified as the SEC's action on September 17, which established a regulatory path for some trading platforms to issue U.S. listed stocks in tokenized form.

The so-called 'innovation exemption' was received as a positive regulatory change for cryptocurrency infrastructure, contributing to improved institutional investor sentiment. Although there were prior setbacks such as the failure to pass the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), this regulatory measure is analyzed to have acted as a catalyst to reverse the market mood. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs also saw a net inflow of $6.2 million last week, with the sustainability of future fund flows identified as a key observation point.

Technically, a significant change also occurred. Bitcoin surpassed its 50-week moving average, located at approximately $78,200, for the first time in 45 weeks based on the weekly closing price. The recovery trend gained momentum by breaking through the recent major resistance zone of $81,700-$82,000. Maintaining the daily closing price above $80,535, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, was also cited as an indicator to confirm further strength.

The short-term decisive point is the $82,000-$82,300 range, which has repeatedly curbed upward movements. If Bitcoin converts this price range into a support level, there is a possibility of a rapid rise to $84,252, which is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Conversely, if the upward momentum breaks and it falls below $80,000, the risk of a correction towards $79,000 could increase, and whether Bitcoin spot ETF funds turn back to outflows is also a variable.

CoinMarketCap assessed that Bitcoin is currently showing strong upward momentum, driven by regulatory tailwinds and technical breakthroughs. However, for further upside confirmation, a daily close above $82,300 with high trading volume is necessary. Short-term, $84,252 has been presented as an upward target, while a U.S.-China summit, which could influence trade and technology investment sentiment, was also cited as a macroeconomic variable.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*