Bitcoin Rebounds Above $76,500... ETF Outflows and Hawkish Fed Limit Upside

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its rebound, recovering the $76,500 level, but its upside potential remains limited. With funds flowing out of Bitcoin spot ETFs for two consecutive days, coupled with the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Fed and Middle East tensions, analysts suggest that despite intact technical support levels, it's difficult to conclude that investor sentiment has decisively turned bullish.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 17 (local time), Bitcoin traded around $76,573 on Thursday, following a slight rebound the previous day. According to SoSoValue, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $295.98 million on Wednesday. This marks two consecutive days of outflows this week, following $450.33 million on Tuesday. The media analyzed that if this outflow trend continues or expands, the extent of BTC's correction could deepen.

The macroeconomic environment also poses a burden. The Fed unanimously raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00% at its September monetary policy meeting, and the dot plot indicated the possibility of one more interest rate hike within the year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh explained that the strength of the US economy, the lack of improvement in inflation during the summer, and geopolitical situations influenced this decision. Amid inflationary pressures from high energy prices, the US 10-year Treasury yield is also approaching the psychological threshold of 5.0% and its highest level since mid-2007.

The situation in the Middle East was also cited as a burden for risk assets. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed that Saudi Arabia had conducted over 450 airstrikes across Yemen in the past week and shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet over the Marib region. US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran wants an agreement and that the war could be nearing its end, but the escalation of fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia supports geopolitical risk premiums and oil prices. Furthermore, the failure of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, to advance in the Senate, could strengthen demand for the dollar and limit Bitcoin's upside potential.

Technically, BTC maintains a short-term bullish structure, trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $73,709, the 200-day EMA of $73,145, and the 100-day EMA of $71,499. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dropped to 51, indicating a neutral zone, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in negative territory, showing a slowdown in upward momentum. In case of a decline, $73,709, $73,145, and $71,499 were presented as support levels, respectively, and if the correction deepens, $66,500 and $62,300 were cited as additional defense lines.

On the upside, $85,000 is the key resistance level. If BTC breaks this price on a daily closing basis, a new upward path towards a new high could reopen, but if it fails to break through, sideways movement above the rising EMA support zone could continue. Ultimately, despite the rebound to the $76,500 level, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, the Fed's hawkish stance, and Middle East tensions are simultaneously ongoing. Therefore, in the short term, the key factors are defending major EMAs and breaking through the $85,000 resistance.

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