Ripple (XRP) and Stellar Lumens (XLM) Rebounded… Why Are Derivatives Sending Mixed Signals?

▲ XRP, Stellar (XLM)/AI generated image ©

XRP (Ripple) and Stellar Lumens (XLM) have rebounded from key technical support levels, but derivatives and on-chain indicators are sending mixed signals. While XRP recovered to $1.30 and XLM to $0.184, both assets are blocked by major long-term moving averages, suggesting that the market is showing cautious observation rather than a clear direction.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 17 (local time), XRP rebounded to $1.30 on Thursday after finding support near a major Exponential Moving Average (EMA) the previous day. XLM also recovered more than 4% on Wednesday and traded at $0.184. However, CoinGlass's long/short ratio for XRP was 1.06, close to its highest level in about a month, while XLM recorded 0.97. A value above 1 indicates a dominance of long positions, while a value below 1 indicates a dominance of short positions.

Funding rates sent the opposite signal. XRP funding rates turned negative on Wednesday and recorded -0.0040% on Thursday, indicating a bearish structure where short positions pay costs to long positions. In contrast, XLM funding rates turned positive on Wednesday and recorded 0.0093% on Thursday, showing a bullish structure where long positions pay costs to short positions. CryptoQuant data also showed signs of overheating in both spot and futures markets for XRP, with a dominance of selling in the futures market and active participation from retail investors. For XLM, large whale orders appeared in the spot market, but selling pressure dominated in the futures market.

Technically, XRP is holding the demand zone of $1.25-$1.28, slightly above the 50-day EMA at $1.284 and the 100-day EMA at $1.255. However, the 200-day EMA at $1.353 is capping the upside. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dropped to a neutral level of 46, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains below 0, indicating weakened upward pressure. In case of a decline, $1.284 and $1.255 are key support levels, and if this zone breaks, the next major support is $1. Conversely, if $1.353 is broken on a daily closing basis, an upward path to $1.90 could open.

XLM also found support near $0.180, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs converge, but the 200-day EMA at approximately $0.188 is acting as resistance. The RSI is around 52, placing it in a slightly bullish to neutral zone, and the MACD recorded a weak negative value. In case of an upward move, if $0.188 is surpassed and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.20 is broken, $0.218 and the $0.237-$0.260 range are suggested as the next resistance zones. Conversely, if $0.177 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.173 are broken, the next major support level is $0.142.

Ultimately, both XRP and XLM have rebounded from key support levels, but derivatives and on-chain indicators are showing both bullish and bearish signals simultaneously. For XRP, breaking the 200-day EMA at $1.353, and for XLM, recovering $0.188 and $0.20, are presented as technical gateways for further upside. The media evaluated that current indicators suggest cautious investor attitudes and a lack of clear direction rather than strong conviction for a sustained rebound.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*