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While XRP (Ripple) has fallen to around $1.28 after the failure of the vote on the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, Google Gemini presented an extreme scenario where XRP could rebound to $4.50 or conversely plummet to $0.65 depending on the regulatory environment. In particular, the failure of the Clarity Act or similar market structure bills to progress within the year was cited as a key condition for a bearish outlook.
According to crypto news outlet CryptoNews on September 16 (local time), Google Gemini suggested that if a strong cryptocurrency bull market unfolds, XRP could rise to as high as $8 by 2026, and set a bullish target price of $4.50 by January 1, 2027. Conversely, if the Clarity Act or similar legislation is not passed by the end of the year, it predicted a decline to $0.60-$0.65 in a bearish scenario. XRP sharply declined after the Clarity Act vote and is currently trading at approximately $1.28.
The technical trend is still close to bearish. XRP fell from approximately $1.40 before the Senate vote to $1.27-$1.30 after the vote, and currently, $1.26-$1.28 has been presented as the main support zone. The 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are also concentrated around this area. Conversely, the price remains below the 20-day and 200-day EMAs located at approximately $1.35, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen below 50, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has turned negative.
Therefore, the immediate technical target is not $4.50, but a recovery to $1.35. The outlet analyzed that XRP must first reclaim $1.35 and then surpass $1.40-$1.43. If it maintains an upward trend above $1.43, the technical structure could significantly improve, with subsequent resistance levels presented in order as $1.50, $1.65-$1.70, and the psychological resistance of $2. If Bitcoin (BTC) enters a full-fledged bull market and XRP breaks through $2 with strong trading volume, a scenario heading towards $4.50 via $3 and $3.50 is also possible, according to the analysis.
In the opposite scenario, a break below $1.26 was identified as a warning sign. If XRP fails to hold this price, $1.20 and $1.10-$1.15 are suggested as the next support zones. For a decline to $0.65 as predicted by Gemini, a significant risk-off environment must form across the broader cryptocurrency market. The Clarity Act failed to progress in the Senate on September 15 with a vote of 49 to 50, and immediately after this, XRP plummeted by approximately 9%. The bill aims to clarify the jurisdiction of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Gemini's outlook heavily depends on future regulatory and market environments. It suggested the possibility of XRP rising to the $3.50-$5 range if the Clarity Act progresses again, regulatory uncertainty eases, and Bitcoin enters a bull market simultaneously. Conversely, if the bill remains stalled and the cryptocurrency market turns bearish, it set $0.65 as a bearish target. However, these are conditional price forecasts presented by Google Gemini and are not definitive predictions of actual prices.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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