XRP (Ripple), Why Can't It Break $2? The Hidden 'Sell Wall' From 75% of Holders

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©Go Da-sol

An analysis suggests that a thick waiting volume of 'break-even selling' from investors is behind XRP (Ripple)'s difficulty in recovering to $2. Approximately 75% of XRP's realized market cap was formed at price levels above $2, and the proportion held by US XRP spot ETFs in the current circulating supply is only about 1.7%. This indicates that stronger demand is needed to absorb the selling volume extending up to $2.

According to investment media Yahoo Finance on September 16 (local time), XRP is trading at $1.26, having fallen from $1.42 on September 15 and dropped approximately 11% over the past week. Its market capitalization decreased by 8.25% to $79.75 billion, while its 24-hour trading volume increased by 19.26% to $5.97 billion. XRP surged from about $0.99 on August 18 to $1.66 intraday on August 22, but has since failed to regain upward momentum, repeatedly failing to recover to $2.

According to CoinMarketCap on-chain data, XRP's realized price is approximately $1.48, meaning that at the current price of $1.26, about 60% of the total supply is in a loss position. Realized market capitalization is a metric that estimates investors' acquisition prices by valuing each token based on its price when it last moved on-chain. Notably, 75% of XRP's realized market capitalization was formed from tokens that last moved when the price was above $2. A significant portion of these tokens entered the market between November 2024 and March 2026, and these investors are currently experiencing losses of 37-56% compared to their acquisition prices.

Selling pressure has accumulated at various price levels up to $2. The media outlet presented six resistance zones above the current price: $1.41, $1.47, $1.55, $1.66, $1.86, and $2. The explanation is that investors with different acquisition prices are positioned at each price level, meaning that as XRP rises, there could be selling volume from those looking to sell at their break-even point. According to Santiment, investors who bought below $2 this year already sold some of their holdings during the August rally, but investors who bought above $2 have not yet reached their break-even point, leading to a greater supply overhang concentrated above $1.66.

From a supply and demand perspective, XRP spot ETFs were identified as a variable. US XRP spot ETFs currently hold about 1.7% of the XRP supply, acting as a source of demand to absorb selling volume that emerges during price increases. However, XRP has fallen by 30% since the beginning of the year, a larger drop than Bitcoin (BTC)'s 13.4% and Ethereum (ETH)'s 19% decline over the same period. The media outlet assessed that the current rate of ETF capital inflow alone makes it difficult to quickly absorb the accumulated resistance volume. The US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, could also have been a separate catalyst, but its legislative progress has stalled after failing to pass a recent Senate procedural vote.

The media outlet kept open the possibility of XRP reaching $2 by 2027, but analyzed that the process depends on how quickly the supply accumulated above the current price is absorbed. First, it must overcome resistances from $1.41 to $1.66 sequentially, then break through $1.86 and $2. Specifically, if the XRP spot ETF's holdings relative to the supply, currently about 1.7%, increase to the mid-single digits, the power to absorb selling volume could strengthen. Conversely, if ETF demand remains limited and the Clarity Act continues to be stalled, $2 could remain a strong resistance level for the foreseeable future, it predicted.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*