Nvidia (NVDA) Falls 5% from Peak...Wall Street Presents Bullish Case with "$300 Target Price"

▲ Nvidia (NVIDIA)

Nvidia (NVDA) fell approximately 5% from its September peak, but Wall Street presented a bullish outlook, raising its target price to $300.

According to FXLeaders on September 14 (local time), Nvidia fell approximately 5% from its early September high of $235.74. Regulatory pressure, rising US Treasury yields, and a sell-off in technology stocks acted as headwinds. However, Wall Street maintains a positive outlook for Nvidia, citing its earnings and AI demand. Phillip Securities raised its target price from the previous $285 to $300. The average target price among all analysts is $324.

Earnings are the key basis for the bullish outlook. Nvidia's Q2 fiscal year revenue doubled year-over-year to $96.2 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were approximately 7% higher than market expectations. Data center revenue reached $89 billion, with $49 billion of that coming from large cloud providers. Nvidia expects Q3 fiscal year revenue of $108 billion but warned that rising memory costs and supply issues could pressure profitability.

Expansion of its AI business is also continuing. In early September, Nvidia announced its acquisition of AI model platform Hugging Face for approximately $12.9 billion. This strategy aims to strengthen its AI development tools and software business beyond semiconductors. Nvidia is also reportedly considering participating as a key investor in Anthropic's IPO with an investment of $10 billion. Anthropic's IPO size is said to be up to $100 billion, with a company valuation of approximately $2 trillion.

In terms of technical trends, breaking above $223.5 was presented as the first hurdle. Analysis suggests that if it surpasses this price, it could retest the resistance zone of $235-$238.6. Conversely, a close below $206 could lead to a decline to $196-$199. The 50-day exponential moving average is forming a short-term support zone at $214-$217. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is 56, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator points to a sideways trend.

Regulatory variables are factors threatening the positive outlook. The US Department of Justice is reportedly examining whether Nvidia's semiconductor licensing agreement with Groq was structured to avoid antitrust regulations. Nvidia director Mark Stevens' recent sale of over $235 million worth of shares was also cited as a cautionary factor for investors. FXLeaders analyzed that while earnings and AI demand support the bullish outlook, breaking above $223.5 and regulatory risks are key variables that will determine future trends.

[Article Key Summary]

-Phillip Securities raised Nvidia's target price from $285 to $300, with the Wall Street average target price at $324.

-Nvidia's Q2 fiscal year revenue was $96.2 billion, and data center revenue was $89 billion.

-A break above $223.5 could lead to a retest of $235-$238.6, but regulatory investigations and insider selling are factors of concern.

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