'Triple Whammy' for Bitcoin! ETF Fund Outflows, Interest Rate Hike, and Middle East Tensions Overlap

▲ Bitcoin Plunge ©

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 4% this week, falling to the $76,900 range, as institutional fund outflows, concerns over a US interest rate hike, and a surge in oil prices due to Middle East tensions simultaneously pressure its price. Having failed to break past $79,668 on a weekly basis, further correction is possible, but analysis suggests that the long-term uptrend structure itself has not yet been damaged.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 11 (local time), Bitcoin traded around $76,900 on Friday, down over 4% for the week. Institutional demand is also weakening. According to SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $449.44 million for the week through Thursday, making it highly likely that the three-week streak of net inflows will be broken. The outlet predicted that if fund outflows continue and expand on Friday, it could lead to further correction for BTC.

The macroeconomic environment is also a burden. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.3% and the revised previous month's figure of 4.8%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.6%, matching expectations but higher than July's 4.3%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on September 15-16 increased from about 60% last week to about 70%. The market is watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Friday, with analysis suggesting that strong inflation figures could stimulate dollar strength and put additional pressure on Bitcoin.

Middle East tensions surrounding the US and Iran are also weighing on risk asset investment sentiment. Iran announced it attacked 10 ships around the Strait of Hormuz after the US allegedly sank five of its oil tankers, and Yemen's Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, seized Mocha, a strategic stronghold in the Red Sea. US President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of a war with Iran continuing until after the US midterm elections in November. As a result, crude oil prices soared to their highest level since May 21, increasing both geopolitical risk premiums and downward pressure on BTC.

Technically, the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $79,668 is a key turning point. BTC faced resistance in this range this week, correcting over 4% to trade around $76,943 on Friday. If $79,668 continues to act as resistance, the decline could extend to the psychological support level of $70,000. However, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains a moderate upward momentum at around 55, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, indicating that upward pressure has not completely disappeared. Conversely, if the weekly closing price recovers $79,668, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $87,599 and the 100-week SMA of $89,312 are presented as the next targets.

On the daily chart, the medium-to-long-term uptrend structure is maintained. BTC is trading above all the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered around $70,800-$72,900. The daily RSI is around 54, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, but the MACD is below the zero line, suggesting that upward momentum has slowed. To the upside, $85,000 is a major resistance level, and in case of a decline, the 200-day EMA at $72,866 and the 50-day EMA at $72,871 form the first support zone. The 100-day EMA at $70,822 then provides support, and if the correction deepens, $66,500 and $62,300 are suggested as additional support levels.

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