Bitcoin Trapped at $77,000, Will Friday's US Jobs Report Open the Door to $85,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©

With the leading cryptocurrency, which had an explosive rally in the latter half of August, entering a consolidation phase, the tight tug-of-war formed around the $77,000 mark is expected to determine a new direction based on the upcoming key economic indicator release.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 3 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) continued its sideways movement near $77,700 during Thursday's trading. Amid the recent range-bound trend, institutional demand has shown mixed movements without a clear direction. Market participants are maintaining an extremely cautious stance ahead of key economic indicators that will gauge the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path and determine BTC's next move.

Institutional investors' sentiment has been mixed this week. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $216.7 million on Monday and $101.15 million on Wednesday, while experiencing net outflows of $201.81 million last Friday and $236.46 million this Tuesday. Such fluctuating capital flows suggest that institutions are cautiously positioning themselves amid rising geopolitical tensions, and BTC could face further corrections if the outflow trend intensifies again.

Market participants' attention is focused on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to be released on Friday. Geopolitically, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are suppressing risk asset appetite. Conflicts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting political signals are maintaining a geopolitical risk premium, supporting oil prices and the dollar, thereby limiting further upside for Bitcoin. Due to concerns about inflation reigniting from rising energy prices and the aftermath of the Jackson Hole meeting remarks, the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 15-16, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, surged from 41.43% early last week to 60.2%.

From a technical analysis perspective, BTC is trading sideways around the $77,827 mark, but a short-term bullish bias remains valid. This is because it is stably holding above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between approximately $69,400 and $72,600. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates slowing momentum around 66 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is retreating, suggesting a short-term consolidation, the overall upward structure is still supported.

For downside support, the 200-day EMA at $72,586 acts as the primary defense line, followed by the 50-day EMA at $70,594, the 100-day EMA at $69,410, and strong horizontal support levels at $66,500 and $62,300, respectively. On the upside, the $85,000 horizontal resistance level is a key hurdle; a sustained breakthrough of this zone could open the path to new all-time highs, but failure to break through is likely to lead to continued sideways movement above the moving average support lines.

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