Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market Over?...Analyst "No Plunge in September"

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An analysis suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market has ended, as it surpassed the final technical conditions in August.

According to BeInCrypto on September 2 (local time), technical analyst Eric Crown highly evaluated the possibility of the bear market ending, based on Bitcoin closing August at $78,581. The benchmark line Crown presented was $65,708. This was a condition for the monthly stochastic indicator to exit the bearish zone. The last time the same signal appeared was in January 2023. Crown stated, "I believe Bitcoin is more likely to rise than to fall overall in the future."

Crown assessed September as a month with no clear direction rather than a sharp decline. Bitcoin's median September return is the third lowest on a monthly basis. However, excluding the deep bear markets of 2011 and 2014, the average September return improves to -0.1%. In the last three years, September returns were also positive, at 4%, 7.4%, and 5.4%, respectively.

However, he left open the possibility of a correction in early September. Historically, the median Bitcoin return for the first 16 days of September is -8.5%. Applied to the August closing price, this corresponds to approximately $71,900. Conversely, the median return reverses to 6.5% after the middle of the month. Crown cited Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings, economic indicator announcements, and quadruple witching as events that could increase volatility.

The first correction zone was suggested at the 5-week exponential moving average of $73,294. Crown calculated a 71.5% probability that Bitcoin would test this line within a week. For a deeper decline, he saw the 21-week exponential moving average of $70,923 as the worst correction zone. He stated that if Bitcoin loses $70,000, he would re-evaluate the bear market ending outlook itself.

The price structure has not completely shifted to bullish. Bitcoin rose to $81,260 in August but failed to surpass the previous weekly high of approximately $83,000. Crown stated that he would maintain his existing outlook above $70,000. On the other hand, analyst Benjamin Cowen sees the bottoming out closer to November, indicating a divided market view regarding the end of the bear market.

[Key Article Summary]

-Eric Crown analyzed that Bitcoin met the final technical conditions to confirm the end of the bear market by closing August at $78,581.

-For early September, potential corrections to $73,294 and $70,923 were suggested, with a break below $70,000 cited as invalidating the bullish outlook.

-Crown viewed September as a month with limited fluctuations rather than a sharp decline, but Benjamin Cowen presented a different forecast, expecting the bottom to be closer to November.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*