‘Sell Wall’ Prevents Bitcoin from Recovering $80,000… $14 Billion Volatility Coming by End of September

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Bitcoin (BTC) is trapped between an accumulation support level of $62,000-$65,000 and a long-term holder selling zone of $83,000-$86,000, with an increasing volume of profitable assets raising the risk of profit-taking.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 3 (local time), after breaking above $80,000 on August 27, Bitcoin retreated to around $76,000 due to continuous selling pressure, leading to a cascade of long position liquidations. At the time of writing, the price was $77,060, down 0.2% from 24 hours prior.

Glassnode analyzed that some short positions were liquidated during the recent rally, but the price did not reach the large-scale short liquidation zone concentrated between $83,000 and $86,000. Conversely, a significant amount of long liquidation liquidity remains below the current price, between $60,000 and $63,000. On-chain supply distribution also confirmed that $62,000-$65,000, formed during the summer consolidation period, acts as a major accumulation support, while $83,000-$86,000, where long-term holder (LTH) supply is concentrated, is a key resistance level.

The increase in supply entering profit is also a burden on price recovery. When Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May, approximately 65% of the circulating supply was in profit, but when it returned to the same price level at the end of August, this figure rose to 68%. Glassnode explained that due to summer accumulation, the average acquisition cost for short-term holders was readjusted to approximately $71,000, meaning that if the previous highs are tested again, the potential selling pressure from profit-taking will increase proportionally.

In the options market, short-term investor sentiment quickly cooled. During the recent sharp price increase, demand for bullish call options rose, causing the 7-day 25-delta skew index to surge, but it returned to a neutral level after failing to settle above $80,000. However, the 180-day skew showed no significant change during both the rally and correction, indicating that long-term options demand remained relatively stable.

The market points to the quarterly options expiry on September 25 as the next volatility factor. Open interest on Deribit and BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) amounts to approximately $14 billion, with a significant portion concentrated at strike prices above $80,000. Therefore, whether Bitcoin breaks through the long-term holder supply zone of $83,000-$86,000 or retests the accumulation zone of $62,000-$65,000 will determine its future price direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*