Anthropic, at risk of bankruptcy trying to catch SpaceX?...Warning of an $80 billion 'fatal trap'

▲ Anthropic, SpaceX (SPCX), Artificial Intelligence (AI)/AI generated image

Anthropic has emerged as a candidate to surpass SpaceX in an initial public offering (IPO). However, a warning has been issued that a gross profit margin of around 70%, similar to Microsoft's, would be necessary to withstand the burden of an $80 billion computing investment.

According to StockTwits on September 2 (local time), PitchBook Senior Analyst Harrison Rolfes evaluated Anthropic's Q2 adjusted operating profit turning to black as “unprecedented for an AI company.” Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, surging from $4.73 billion in Q1 and $787 million in the same period last year. Annualized revenue in July surpassed $65 billion. This is approximately $5.4 billion per month, a sevenfold increase from a year ago.

For Anthropic to surpass SpaceX's record, its corporate value must exceed $1.8 trillion. It also needs to raise more funds than the $86 billion SpaceX secured, including its overallotment option. Simply catching up to Anthropic's current private valuation of $965 billion is not enough.

The problem is the enormous computing cost. Anthropic is reportedly investing $35 billion to secure 350-megawatt Texas data center capacity with Nvidia-backed Lambda. Previously, it invested $45 billion in computing capacity for Nscale's West Virginia facility. The total investment commitment is $80 billion. Rolfes estimated Anthropic's gross profit margin at approximately 44%, significantly lower than Microsoft (MSFT) and ServiceNow (NOW), which are around 70%. He stated, “To manage the large-scale commitments extending until 2030-2032, the gross profit margin needs to be raised to around 70%.”

The key driver of growth is Claude Code. Claude Code's annualized revenue surpassed $2.5 billion last February. Enterprise customers account for 80% of Anthropic's total revenue, and as of April, over 1,000 customers spend more than $1 million annually. Rolfes assessed that Claude is moving beyond simple testing phases into actual business API environments. However, he pointed out that it is unclear how much of the current revenue is guaranteed by contracts, and that customer retention rates, contract durations, and committed usage need further verification.

Anthropic has also expanded its cooperation with Salesforce (CRM). The two companies unveiled Claudeforce, offering 37 pre-built sales functionalities. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff hailed it as “industry-first” and “the way all enterprise systems will operate going forward.” While Anthropic is pushing ahead with rapid revenue growth and expanding its enterprise customer base, the $80 billion computing commitments and an estimated gross profit margin of around 44% remain key variables for its future IPO valuation.

[Article Summary]

-Anthropic's annualized revenue in July surpassed $65 billion, a sevenfold increase from a year ago, and its Q2 adjusted operating profit also turned to black.

-To surpass SpaceX's IPO record, a corporate value of over $1.8 trillion and funding exceeding $86 billion are required.

-PitchBook analyzed that Anthropic's gross profit margin needs to increase from its current estimated 44% to approximately 70% to cover the $80 billion computing commitments.

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