Down 30% this year... Benjamin Cowen "Gold price will hit new highs again"

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Gold prices have fallen about 30% this year. However, there are predictions that the long-term bull market is not yet over.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen, in a video released on September 1st (local time), assessed the 2026 decline in gold prices as a correction within a bull market. He explained that although gold has fallen about 30% from its early-year high, similar or even larger corrections have occurred repeatedly in past bull markets. In 2008, there was a drop of about 33.5%, and in the 1970s bull market, declines reached nearly 50%. Cowen also cited geopolitical uncertainties and the possibility of continued gold purchases by central banks worldwide as reasons for his long-term bullish outlook.

The period Cowen focused on is from mid-September to mid-October. He explained that his analysis of past trends in US midterm election years showed that gold prices often showed strength at the beginning of the year, then bottomed out in the summer, and rebounded again. In 2026, gold also hit a summer low, rebounded about 20%, and is currently undergoing another correction. Cowen presented a 65% probability of forming a bottom at a level higher than the previous summer low during this correction, and a 35% probability of falling below the previous low.

The gold price trend of 1974 was also presented as a comparison. At that time, gold fell about 30% from its March-April high, then rebounded about 20% from its low. Subsequently, it underwent another correction in mid-September but formed a higher low and then climbed to a new high by the end of the year. Cowen pointed out that 2026 is showing a similar trend, with an approximately 30% decline followed by an approximately 20% rebound. However, he did not rule out the possibility of a lower low in September-October, similar to 2018 and 2022.

A short-term variable is the US dollar. Cowen believes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) could strengthen again as the market reflects the possibility of one or two interest rate hikes before the end of the year. The analysis suggests that if the dollar rebound continues, gold prices could face additional pressure for the next 2-4 weeks. He stated, “I expect very short-term weakness,” adding that gold prices are likely to rise again afterward.

Even with a long-term bullish outlook, he provided criteria. Cowen believes that gold could attempt new highs again as early as the end of this year. He stated that if there is no clear breakout by mid-2027 at the latest, he would re-evaluate his existing forecast. He also noted that 2027 is the year before the US presidential election. He explained that gold prices generally rose in several years preceding presidential elections, such as 2023, 2019, 2011, 2007, and 2003.

[Article Summary]

-Although gold prices have fallen about 30% from their high this year, Cowen analyzed that similar or even larger corrections occurred in past bull markets.

-Cowen presented a 65% probability of forming a bottom at a level higher than the previous low between mid-September and mid-October, and a 35% probability of a lower low.

-While a dollar rebound is considered a short-term burden, Cowen left open the possibility of a re-rise after the end of the year and presented mid-2027 as the judgment point for the long-term outlook.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*