Bitcoin Halved, Will It Double Again in 3 Years?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has halved from its all-time high, it is projected that it could double again in the next three years if the 2028 halving, regulatory improvements, and interest rate cuts coincide. The analysis suggests that long-term drivers such as supply scarcity and institutional adoption are stronger than short-term weaknesses.

According to the investment media The Motley Fool on August 7 (local time), Bitcoin recorded an all-time high exceeding $126,000 in October last year, then fell to approximately $64,000 currently. Although the drop from its peak was significant, it is still up over 120% compared to approximately $29,000 three years ago.

The first driver behind the surge over the past three years was its integration into the mainstream financial system. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, allowing individual and institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin without a cryptocurrency wallet. In April of the same year, mining rewards were halved due to the quadrennial halving event. With over 20 million BTC already mined out of a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, the reduction in supply and increased mining difficulty strengthened Bitcoin's character as 'digital gold'.

Monetary policy also contributed to the upward trend. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the benchmark interest rate 11 consecutive times from 2022-2023, then cut rates three times in 2024 and three more times in 2025. Coupled with expectations of further interest rate cuts and the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs. However, starting in 2026, rising inflation led the Fed to freeze interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainty grew, and the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, was delayed in the Senate, weakening the upward momentum.

Key catalysts for the next three years include the 2028 halving, the passage of pro-crypto legislation including the Clarity Act, and Fed interest rate cuts driven by slowing inflation. Once regulatory uncertainties are resolved, institutional investors will re-enter, and a resumption of accommodative monetary policy could revive investor sentiment for growth assets, including cryptocurrencies. If corporate and government adoption expands, Bitcoin is expected to broaden its position as a universal hedge asset against monetary inflation. The media assessed that while significant volatility will persist during the upward trend, long-term strengths outweigh short-term weaknesses, making it likely to hit new all-time highs within the next three years.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*