Half of exchange supply disappeared…Will XRP (Ripple) break through $1.22?

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©Go Dasol

Although XRP (Ripple) has fallen to $1.04, large-scale accumulation by whales and exchange balances, which have decreased to a 7-year low, are increasing the possibility of defending $1.01. However, the monthly net inflow of XRP spot ETFs plummeted by 79.5% in two months, indicating that institutional demand needed to break through $1.22 is still insufficient.

According to the investment media TradingNews on August 6 (local time), XRP traded at $1.04, down 1.54-1.95% over 24 hours. Since late May, it has been confined to a range of $0.21 between $1.01 and $1.22, falling 71.6% from its cycle high of $3.66 and 56.7% from $2.40 in January. Bitcoin (BTC) held at $64,370.70 and Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.69%, while XRP and Solana (SOL) showed weakness amid leverage pressure.

The key support level is the Fibonacci 1.618 extension at $1.01, which has been maintained for about 6 weeks. If daily or weekly trading closes below $1, stop-loss selling will occur, potentially pushing it down to $0.95-$0.90, and the major support level of $0.93. Conversely, if it breaks above $1.10-$1.14 and then $1.22, $1.35 opens as the next target. XRP is below its 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day moving averages, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is 40.32, indicating capital outflow. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rebounded for the first time since late July, but the media assessed this as a sign of slowing selling pressure rather than a trend reversal.

In terms of supply and demand, the movement of large holders was prominent. Whales added 210 million XRP, worth approximately $218 million at current value, during a month of price decline, and large wallet holdings increased by 2.8% over the past five weeks. Exchange balances decreased from 3.76 billion XRP in October 2025 to 1.6 billion XRP, reaching a 7-year low. This means that 2.16 billion XRP, worth approximately $2.25 billion, has moved out of immediately sellable supply in nine months. However, the 90-day cumulative taker volume difference has fallen to a neutral level, indicating only quiet volume absorption and no aggressive buying pressure.

Institutional demand, on the other hand, weakened. Monthly net inflows into US XRP spot ETFs plummeted by 79.5% from $132 million in May to $27 million in July. The seven products traded in the US held $1 billion in assets under management and 992.4 million XRP as of August 5, but analysis suggests that the current inflow rate makes it difficult to drive up the price. The probability of the US crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing in 2026 also decreased from 62% in May to 27%. Conversely, the supply of the dollar-pegged stablecoin RLUSD on the XRP Ledger increased to $810 million, 51.7% of the total, surpassing the $756 million on Ethereum for the first time. The media suggested a basic range of $1.01-$1.22 for August, with $1.22 as the target if $1.14 is broken, but diagnosed that a daily close below $1 would invalidate the bullish outlook.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*