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▲ Elon Musk, SpaceX (SPCX), US stocks, individual investors/AI generated image ©
As SpaceX (SPCX) approaches a large-scale stock lockup release this month, investors are keenly interested in how the volume of shares expected to flood the market will affect the stock price.
According to crypto media outlet Finbold on August 6 (local time), SpaceX's circulating stock ratio rose to 11.8% on August 6 and is expected to expand to 15.2% by August 20. Considering that approximately 639 million shares were in circulation at the time of the initial public offering (IPO), if this lockup release proceeds as scheduled, the tradable volume in the market will more than double.
Although it is uncertain whether early investors or employees will sell, a large influx of new shares could significantly impact the stock price. Therefore, the media outlet used generative AI ChatGPT to predict SpaceX's stock price after the lockup release on August 20.
ChatGPT presented three scenarios. The least likely bullish scenario, with a 20% probability, involves limited insider selling and a short squeeze (buying pressure occurring to liquidate or cover short positions), leading the stock price to reach $125-$135. The bearish scenario, with a 30% probability, involves intensified bearish sentiment due to large-scale insider selling, causing the stock price to fall to $90-$102.
The most probable base scenario, with a 50% probability, involves moderated selling pressure and reduced volatility. In this case, the stock price is expected to trade between $110-$120, approximately 11% higher than the current price of $108, but still below the IPO price of $135. ChatGPT's final target price, adjusted for the base scenario, is $116.
This volatility stems from a unique structure where, at the time of the IPO, the circulating supply was less than 5% of the total issued shares, and scarcity drove up the stock price. With the release of 912 billion SPCX shares today, making hundreds of millions of additional shares available for trading, the market is closely watching for insider monetization moves.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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