Polymarket "Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) Merger Probability 18% by Year-End"

▲ Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX (SPCX)/AI Generated Image

The possibility of an announcement of a merger between Tesla (Tesla, TSLA) and SpaceX (SpaceX, SPCX) by the end of the year was only 18% in the prediction market.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media BeInCrypto on August 6 (local time), Polymarket participants estimated the probability of the two companies announcing a merger by December 31, 2026, at 18%. The contract price for this was approximately $0.18. The probability of announcing a merger by September 30 is only 5%. The cumulative transaction volume for related contracts has exceeded $1 million.

SpaceX announced its first earnings report since its IPO in June 2026. Revenue increased by 92% year-on-year to $7.8 billion, and net losses also decreased. However, its stock price fell by 12% after the earnings announcement. This was due to the market's attention shifting to quarterly capital expenditures exceeding $18 billion and the release of lock-up periods. Most of the capital expenditures were invested in AI infrastructure.

The businesses of the two companies are intertwined in the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous driving data. Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus and space-based data centers are also cited as areas of cooperation. Some forecasts suggest that the merged entity's corporate value could reach or exceed $5 trillion.

The biggest variable hindering the merger is Tesla's China business. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives considered spinning off or selling its China business, or structurally separating its Shanghai operations. The combination of SpaceX, a major U.S. defense contractor, and Tesla, which has a significant presence in the Chinese market, could escalate political controversy. CEO Elon Musk dismissed the related reports as “ridiculous fake news,” stating that they were never discussed internally.

Regulatory review, differences in corporate value, and shareholder interests are also cited as obstacles to the merger. The task of integrating the automotive business with the space and artificial intelligence businesses, which require large-scale capital, is also complex. To pursue a merger, approval from both companies' boards of directors and official procedures must be followed. While Polymarket keeps open the possibility of a merger announcement, it maintains a cautious assessment of its feasibility in 2026.

[Article Key Summary]

-Polymarket estimated the probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger in 2026 at 18%.

-The corporate value of the merged entity of the two companies was discussed to be over $5 trillion.

-China business, regulatory review, and board approval procedures were identified as key barriers to the merger.

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