Bitcoin (BTC), $50,000 Collapse?... "Two Fears Coming in August"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), bear market, cryptocurrency decline/AI-generated image

A warning has been issued that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $50,000.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet BeInCrypto on August 5 (local time), Bitcoin formed a double top after failing to break through the same resistance level near $64,000 twice. The trading volume at both highs was similar, reinforcing the signal of a bearish reversal. Bitcoin has closed August in decline six times out of the last eight years.

Selling by large holders and long-term holders also increased simultaneously. According to Santiment data, the holdings of whales holding 10,000-100,000 BTC decreased from 2.26 million BTC on August 3 to 2.25 million BTC. The net selling volume of long-term holders surged more than six times in two days, from 1,802 BTC on August 2 to 11,472 BTC on August 4.

The first variable is the US employment report to be released on Friday. The market expects 80,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Weak employment indicators fueled fears of a recession in August 2024, triggering a sharp drop in Bitcoin. The second variable is the Jackson Hole Symposium in the last week of August. If Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh reaffirms a hawkish stance, expectations for interest rate cuts could be shaken again.

If Bitcoin gives up $61,080, $59,500 opens as the next support level. Analysis suggests that if the daily candle closes below the $57,750-$57,470 range, the double top will be confirmed, and it could fall by approximately 14% to $49,700. Conversely, if the resistance zone of $66,930-$67,230 is recovered, this bearish scenario becomes invalid.

[Key Summary of the Article]

-Bitcoin faces a risk of falling to $50,000 due to a double top and simultaneous selling by whales and long-term holders.

-The US employment report and the Jackson Hole Symposium have been identified as key variables that will increase price volatility in August.

-If the $57,750 level breaks, a drop of approximately 14% to $49,700 is suggested as the next target.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*