Whales bought 40,100, but Strategy sold…Mixed Bitcoin Signals

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed $64,000, but if it fails to break through the resistance level that has capped its rise for three weeks, a challenge to $67,000 could again be thwarted. Bitcoin rose to an intraday high of $64,486.72 before trading around $64,196. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,587 is a key resistance level, while the short-term support level is $63,898.

According to the investment media TradingNews on August 5 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded from its recent low of $62,200, recovering the 20-day EMA of $63,943. A breakthrough above $64,587 could open the possibility of a rise to $65,700 and then to $66,000-$67,000. However, the mid-term corrective structure persists as it remains below the 100-day EMA of $67,025 and the 200-day EMA of $72,569. Conversely, if $62,000 breaks, it could fall to $60,900, $60,000, and even deeper to $58,100.

The rally was driven by expectations of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz negotiations and US monetary policy. News that the US and Iran were discussing a 60-day interim shipping agreement led to a drop in international oil prices, reducing the probability of a 25bp interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September from 67% to approximately 57% in a single day. However, if negotiations fail or July employment figures are stronger than expected, tightening concerns could resurface. The market anticipates a non-farm payroll increase of 80,000 in July and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

Supply and demand have improved, but it's not enough to confirm a trend reversal. On August 4, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $170.3 million, with IBIT alone attracting $183.8 million, exceeding the total net inflow. However, $265.37 million was withdrawn in a single day at the end of July, and weekly net inflows plummeted by 83% from $197.4 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24. With futures open interest reaching $48.61 billion, it is difficult to push prices up with only $170 million in spot inflows.

On-chain metrics show that whale wallets accumulated approximately 40,100 BTC, worth $2.6 billion, over nine days. In contrast, Strategy, the largest corporate holder, sold 1,638 BTC for $104.73 million, recording a realized loss of approximately $18.8 million, and miners also sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026. Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is approximately 1.1, close to past major bottom zones, but the Fear & Greed Index is at 25, indicating extreme fear. To confirm an upward trend in the current market, which is 49% below its all-time high of $126,198.07, Bitcoin must first close above $64,587 on a daily basis.

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