Bitcoin attempts to break $64,650... Pushed up by ETF funds and US-Iran negotiations

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Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $64,316, fueled by expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran and two consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, for further upward potential, it needs to break above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $64,650 on a closing basis.

According to investment media FXStreet on August 5 (local time), Bitcoin traded above $64,316 on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance zone. News that the U.S. and Iran are seeking a diplomatic solution to end a five-month conflict and are close to a provisional agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted risk asset investor sentiment.

The agreement under discussion reportedly includes a plan for Oman and Iran to operate a 60-day temporary regime in the Strait of Hormuz. With OPEC+ deciding to expand oil production from September, international oil prices also fell to their lowest level since June 13. As geopolitical and energy market concerns eased, the burden of inflation and further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) also decreased.

The market's reflected probability of a September interest rate hike, as shown by the CME FedWatch, dropped from 64.7% on Tuesday to 58.9%. Institutional demand also showed signs of recovery. According to SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive days, with $170.09 million on Monday and $211.49 million on Tuesday.

Technically, Bitcoin is slightly below the 50-day line of $64,650, with the 100-day line at $67,079 and the 200-day line at $72,649 also acting as overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 51, close to neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below the 0 line, indicating that bearish pressure has not been completely resolved. A sustained break above $64,650 would set $67,079 and $72,649 as the next targets, but a fall below $64,004 could lead to a renewed increase in selling pressure.

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