Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. has released his Bitcoin price forecast for August.
-Base Scenario (55% probability): Sideways movement between $58,000 and $67,000
-Bearish Scenario (30% probability): If it breaks below $57,730, a test of $52,750
-Bullish Scenario (15% probability): If it breaks above $67,000, a test of $71,000-$74,000
-Since 2013, August has closed higher only 4 out of 13 times. Average return: +1.12%, Median: -7.49%.
-Applying the median value (-7.49%) opens up the possibility of a retest around $58,300.
-Historically, August in US midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) all saw declines (average -13.6%).
-The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to climb to around 4.70%, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
-Open interest volume is stabilized, and funding rates are not overheated, indicating a low risk of a large-scale long squeeze.
