Bitcoin Must Reclaim $65,000 to Rebound… Failure Could Open Door to $50,000

Bitcoin tumbles below $63,000 despite falling oil prices and bond yields… Coldcard hack overshadows positive macro factors

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $63,000 despite a favorable macroeconomic environment of plummeting oil prices and declining US Treasury yields. Analysis suggests that internal security concerns within the virtual asset market, including the Coldcard wallet hack, are dominating the price action.

According to investment media FXStreet on August 4 (local time), Bitcoin dropped 0.5% over 24 hours and 4% over the past week. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization also decreased by 0.7% to $2.15 trillion. Although international oil prices plunged 8% amid expectations of renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and US stock index futures rose, Bitcoin failed to rebound.

Falling oil prices typically act as a positive factor for Bitcoin by easing inflation concerns and lowering US Treasury yields and the dollar. However, this time, news of an attack exploiting a vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet, resulting in the leakage of approximately $89 million worth of Bitcoin from over 4,500 addresses, overwhelmed the macroeconomic tailwinds. Galaxy Research reported 1,367 affected entities.

As security concerns grew, small holders moved approximately 40,000 Bitcoins through transactions of less than 1 BTC each. This is the largest daily movement observed from this group of investors since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. The media explained that while this cannot be definitively seen as a large-scale sell-off, it has dampened short-term investor sentiment as users moved assets to new wallets or centralized exchanges as a precautionary measure.

The next market variable is the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report to be released on Friday. Last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting resulted in a more hawkish vote than expected, but the Fed chair did not present a clear policy path to return inflation to its 2% target. A strong employment report could rekindle expectations of a September rate hike, weakening the favorable environment created by falling bond yields and adding further pressure on Bitcoin.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating a dominance of selling pressure. If $62,500 breaks, it could test the psychological support level of $60,000 and the 2026 low of $57,700 in succession. Subsequent downside targets are $55,000 and $50,000. Conversely, to reverse the trend, Bitcoin must reclaim the 50-day moving average at $65,000 and then break through $67,500, where the 100-day moving average and the June 15 high converge. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average at $73,000 becomes the next target.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*