US Stock Market Prepares for Rebound After Overcoming Korea-Origin Shock...Wall Street Giant: "Bull Market Could Last Until 2030"

▲ Semiconductors, Bull Market/AI Generated Image

The US stock market is absorbing the deleveraging shock from Korea and showing signs of a rebound. As a result, there are forecasts that a long-term bull market led by technology stocks and semiconductors could continue until 2029-2030.

Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, analyzed in an August 3 (local time) interview with Bloomberg that recent foreign exchange market interventions might only slow the pace of the yen's depreciation rather than altering its long-term trend. Bartels stated, “Market intervention alone does not change trends; policy shifts are needed to create meaningful change.” She added that it is difficult to be sure that the yen has reached a long-term low.

The US stock market has undergone significant deleveraging in the process of clearing positions in the Korean stock market and hedge funds, she diagnosed. Bartels explained that the S&P500 index has entered an oversold state, and the semiconductor sector is also approaching an oversold zone. She evaluated the attempted rise in stock prices as a positive sign, stating, “If the market rebounds on oversold signals, it means the correction is over.”

Corporate earnings also supported the outlook for a continued bull market. According to FactSet data, the earnings growth rate at the time 61% of S&P500 companies reported their results was approximately 47-48%. Even excluding Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), the growth rate reached about 28-29%. Bartels emphasized, “These are astonishing figures, earnings worth going out and celebrating.”

Bartels predicted that the structural bull market driven by technology stocks and semiconductors would continue until 2029-2030 before peaking. At the same time, she analyzed that the next leadership in the uptrend is expanding to financial stocks, centered on banks, as well as energy, raw materials, metals, and small and mid-cap stocks. She particularly assessed that emerging markets, excluding Europe, Asia, and China, have moved beyond short-term rotations and entered a new long-term upward cycle.

Japan has the potential to emerge as a major exporter based on its AI industry, and the weak yen was identified as a factor enhancing export competitiveness. However, she explained that a situation where the yen's value falls too rapidly needs to be controlled by policy authorities. In Europe, with upward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts and increased defense spending, Bartels concluded that international stock markets are moving away from the existing US-centric bull market and opening a new cycle.

[Article Summary]

-Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, evaluated the S&P500 index's oversold condition and the market's attempt to rebound as positive signs indicating the end of the stock market correction.

-The S&P500 companies' earnings growth rate was approximately 47-48%, and even excluding Alphabet and Amazon, it reached about 28-29%.

-The long-term bull market led by technology stocks and semiconductors is expected to continue until 2029-2030, with financial stocks and international stock markets potentially emerging as the next leaders.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*