XRP (Ripple), will it fall below $1 by the end of August? Prediction market probability 56%

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©

XRP (Ripple) ending August below $1 has emerged as the most likely scenario. While institutional demand and network growth continue, the short-term market sentiment leans towards further declines.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on August 3 (local time), Polymarket traders evaluated the probability of XRP trading below $1 by August 31st at 56%. The likelihood of it exceeding $1.20 was the second highest at 32%. Over $82,500 in trading volume flowed into this prediction market.

Expectations for higher prices have significantly decreased. The probability of the month-end price exceeding $1.40 was 4%, and breaking $1.80 was only 2%. The chances of reaching $2, $2.20, $2.40, $2.60, $2.80, or above $3 were each only 1%. Notably, the probability of breaking $1.40 decreased by 46% compared to before, while the probability of closing below $1 increased by 6%. Market participants generally expect XRP to end August between $1 and $1.20.

Behind the bearish sentiment lies regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Yasuo Nishikawa, a director at SBI Holdings, explained during the Q1 FY2027 earnings announcement that XRP's underperformance might be related to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act. The analysis suggests that investors are taking a wait-and-see approach until the direction of the bill becomes clear.

Conversely, institutional demand and network metrics showed a robust trend. XRP-related ETFs recorded a net inflow of $15 million in the past week, surpassing Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) related products. Assets held by U.S. spot XRP ETFs also increased to approximately $1 billion. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) added about 490,000 new accounts in the first half of 2026, pushing the number of active accounts to an all-time high of over 8.4 million.

Developers are also preparing for the XRPL v3.3.0 upgrade, which introduces institutional features such as confidential transactions, fee delegation, and batch transaction processing. Despite such foundational strengthening, the short-term price has not escaped its bearish trend. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.07, down approximately 1% from 24 hours ago and about 3.5% over the past week.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*