The bull market where everyone rises together is over... Wintermute: "In the next alt season, only a few will survive"

▲ Altcoin

Wintermute analyzed that the number of rising altcoins in the next altcoin season could be fewer than before. Institutional funds are already rapidly flowing into a small number of tokens.

According to Cointelegraph on July 31 (local time), the institutional share of spot transactions at Wintermute's over-the-counter (OTC) desk recorded an all-time high of 72% in the first half of 2026. This consecutively increased from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of 2025.

The trading scope of institutional and individual investors also clearly diverged. The number of tokens traded by institutions increased by 24% from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2026. During the same period, the number of tokens traded by individual investors increased by 76%. Institutional trading subsided in about a day after a surge in token prices and trading volumes. The trading enthusiasm of individual investors lasted for about 3 days.

The concentration of funds in the altcoin market has already been confirmed by several indicators. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on June 20 that the traditional rotation where Bitcoin (BTC) profits move to small-cap cryptocurrencies has “virtually disappeared.” Altcoin trading volume relative to Bitcoin is near its lowest level since 2021. The top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins by market capitalization accounted for 80.5% of the market, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins.

Virtual asset data firm Kaiko analyzed that the trading volume share of the top 10 altcoins reached 63% in July 2025. This is an expansion of 13 percentage points from approximately 50% several months prior. Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, stated on March 15 that “too many tokens are competing for limited funds.” He added that institutional investors are focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and tokenized real-world assets (RWA).

Wintermute diagnosed that trading in peripheral market tokens weakened while liquidity converged on assets preferred by institutions. The altcoin market is shifting from a bull market where all assets rise together to a selective market where only certain sectors and assets increase.

[Key Article Summary]

-In the first half of 2026, the institutional share in Wintermute's spot OTC trading reached a record high of 72%.

-The number of tokens traded by institutions increased by 24% over two years, significantly lower than the 76% increase for individual investors.

-With altcoin funds concentrating on top-tier assets, an analysis suggests that the number of rising assets in the next altcoin season could decrease.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and does not take responsibility for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*