SpaceX (SPCX) Stock 'Plunges' Due to AI Deficit... Will Starlink Be Its Savior?

▲ SpaceX (SPCX)/AI Generated Image

SpaceX (SPCX) has rebounded from its lowest point since listing, but its recovery could falter again if it fails to surpass $117.80.

According to FXLeaders, a specialized foreign exchange and finance media outlet, on July 29 (local time), SpaceX's stock price rebounded from $109.01 and approached the $117 level. This is approximately 18% lower than its IPO price of $135 in June. Immediately after listing, it even exceeded $200. SpaceX raised approximately $75 billion by issuing 555.6 million shares in its IPO, with the total amount, including the over-allotment option, reaching approximately $85.7 billion.

The core business supporting its performance is Starlink. SpaceX's revenue in 2025 increased by 33% year-on-year to $18.67 billion, but its net loss amounted to approximately $4.94 billion. Revenue from the communication business was $11.39 billion, accounting for 61% of the total, and operating profit recorded $4.42 billion. Driven by an increase in subscribers, communication business revenue grew by approximately 50%, with Starlink subscribers totaling 10.3 million at the end of March.

Massive expenditures in the AI business are weighing down the stock price. AI segment revenue in 2025 was approximately $3.2 billion, but operating losses neared $6.4 billion. Capital expenditure alone in Q1 2026 reached $7.7 billion. The reason SpaceX as a whole recorded a loss despite Starlink making a profit lies in investments in AI infrastructure and Starship.

On July 24, SpaceX deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into suborbital trajectory during the 13th integrated test flight of Starship. The satellites exchanged signals with the existing network and returned to Earth as planned. The upper stage successfully reignited its engines for a maritime landing, but the Super Heavy booster failed to reignite some of its engines. If Starship's transport capacity expands, it could lower Starlink deployment costs and be utilized for NASA's lunar exploration missions.

In terms of technical trends, $117.79, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is located, is the first hurdle. If it clearly surpasses $117.80, then $121.54 and $129.39 are indicated as the next resistance levels. Conversely, if it fails to break through and $114.51 is breached, it could fall back to $109.01 and $101.81. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved beyond 54, indicating a buying trend, but the stock price remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average near $142.

[Article Key Summary]

-SpaceX is attempting to break through $117.80, which is approximately 18% lower than its IPO price of $135.

-Starlink recorded $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating profit in 2025.

-The AI sector incurred operating losses close to $6.4 billion, and if $114.51 is breached, the risk of further decline increases.

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