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▲ Solana (SOL)/AI-generated image ©
Solana (SOL) fell below $73, facing a triple whammy of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed), technical weakness, and dampened investor sentiment in derivatives.
According to cryptocurrency market tracking site CoinMarketCap on July 29 (local time), Solana fell 1.86% over 24 hours to $72.63, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, which showed slight weakness. This decline was analyzed as a result of risk-aversion sentiment spreading to high-risk altcoins ahead of the Fed's monetary policy, rather than negative factors specific to Solana itself.
In the market, rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar pressured financial conditions as the possibility of an interest rate hike was reflected ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Although the Fed ultimately froze rates, hawkish dissent was confirmed, meaning uncertainty was not entirely resolved. Solana, being highly sensitive to market conditions, experienced greater selling pressure due to changes in macroeconomic liquidity, and future Fed policy guidance and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data were identified as key variables that would determine market direction.
Technically, Solana failed to break through the $75-$77 resistance, confirming a bearish double-top pattern. Concurrently, Solana futures open interest decreased by 7% over the past week, indicating that long positions were being closed and new bullish bets were weakening. If the daily candle closes below the double-top's neckline of $72-$73, there is a possibility of an additional approximately 7% drop, pushing it down to $67.
The key price that will determine the short-term trend is $73.75. In this range, over 50 million Solana tokens were accumulated in the past. If buying pressure defends this support level, a retest of $77 after consolidation can be expected. However, if it consistently falls below $73.75, there is a risk of selling pressure extending to $67 and then to the main lower target of $60.
Institutional supply and demand are also a burden. The Solana spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $18.07 million on July 28. As macroeconomic uncertainty, technical resistance, and decreasing speculative demand have overshadowed positive developments in the ecosystem, the short-term outlook is cautiously bearish. Over the next 48 hours, whether $73.75 is recovered and changes in Solana spot ETF fund flows will determine if further adjustments occur.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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