Bitcoin (BTC), Bill Passage Probability Plunges to 30%...Will the SEC Save It?

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Expectations for the passage of the US crypto market structure bill by the end of the year have fallen to the 30% range. In response, US regulatory authorities have begun preparing alternatives to fill the legislative void.

In a video uploaded on July 29 (local time), the crypto-specialized YouTube channel Coin Bureau announced that the US crypto market structure bill has been pushed back from the Senate's plenary session schedule. Polymarket's probability of passage by 2026 has dropped to approximately 32%, with some predictive indicators suggesting around 40%. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, lowered the probability of passage to 30%. This marks a sharp collapse in market expectations, which had exceeded 80% in February.

The remaining time before the Senate recess is the biggest obstacle to the bill's processing. Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, but 60 votes are needed to begin deliberation on the bill, requiring the support of at least seven Democratic senators. The final Senate vote is expected on August 7, with the recess starting on August 8. There are 8 remaining working days, but the Russian sanctions bill and the processing of 74 confirmation votes are prioritized. Even if the Senate returns in mid-September, the period available for negotiation before the midterm election campaigns begin in early October is limited to 3-4 weeks.

Ethical provisions surrounding US President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency business also fueled Democratic opposition. The 616-page draft bill, released on July 22, prohibits the President, Vice President, federal lawmakers, and senior officials from receiving compensation and issuing or promoting digital assets during their tenure. However, it permits holding existing tokens for investment purposes or earning license/royalty income. Trump's earnings from cryptocurrency businesses in 2025 were stated as $1.4 billion. Trump token royalties were estimated at approximately $635 million, and World Liberty Financial-related earnings were estimated at $500-590 million. Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the bill, stating that it “does not prevent Trump from making his next $1.4 billion in crypto profits.”

While congressional negotiations have stalled, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are establishing their own regulatory frameworks. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that the commission is prepared to address areas similar to congressional legislation through administrative rules. The SEC's Project Crypto proposed excluding staking, validation, mining, and airdrops from securities regulation. Through joint interpretive guidance, the two agencies classified 16 tokens, including XRP, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Chainlink (LINK), as digital commodities. However, interpretations and rules from administrative agencies can be withdrawn with changes in administration or agency heads and are also subject to administrative procedure lawsuits in court.

As expectations for the bill's passage wavered, the cryptocurrency market reacted immediately. On July 23, long position liquidations exceeded $600 million, and some aggregations showed 24-hour liquidation volume at approximately $670 million. Crypto spot ETFs saw outflows of $225 million on July 23 and $240 million on July 24. Of the net outflow over two days, approximately $415 million originated from BlackRock's (BLK) IBIT. Coin Bureau emphasized that while regulatory guidance can fill short-term gaps, Congress must pass legislation to ensure long-term market certainty.

[Key Article Summary]

-The probability of the US crypto market structure bill passing by 2026 has fallen from over 80% in February to the 30% range.

-Ethical provisions limiting Trump's crypto profits and a lack of Senate voting schedule are hindering the bill's processing.

-While the SEC and CFTC are filling regulatory gaps, congressional legislation is needed to ensure permanent market certainty.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*