Bitcoin, down 53% from its peak, but 'no' bottom signal...How far will it fall?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline/AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted 53% from its 2025 peak, but on-chain indicators are not yet showing bottom signals from past bear markets. The percentage of addresses in a loss state is only 34%, falling significantly short of the levels seen at the lows of 2018 and 2022.

According to crypto media outlet CryptoBasic on July 8 (local time), CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN presented Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) as a key indicator showing Bitcoin's long-term market cycles. NUPL measures the proportion of Bitcoin's market capitalization that is in an unrealized profit state.

NUPL is 0.158, with the 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155. The 30-day line dropped below the 100-day line on June 2, and both indicators are heading towards the 0 line. However, major past lows only appeared after the NUPL 100-day line fell below 0.

The bear market low in 2011 was approximately $2, and in January 2015, it was about $182. The low in December 2018 was approximately $3,206, and the low in November 2022, coinciding with the FTX incident, was about $15,792. At those times, the NUPL 100-day line all went into negative territory, but the same signal has not yet appeared in this cycle.

The percentage of addresses in loss also showed a difference from past lows. According to market observer Cyclop, the percentage of Bitcoin addresses in a loss state is 34%. This is low compared to approximately 55% at the market bottom in 2018 and approximately 50% at the bear market low in 2022. Bitcoin has already fallen 53% from its peak of $126,200 in October 2025, but past cycles saw declines of up to 90%.

However, there is no guarantee that past indicators will repeat exactly in this cycle. Some argue that as Bitcoin has become a more mature asset than before, a large-scale decline like in the past may not recur. This perspective suggests that $58,000 recorded in June 2026 could be the market bottom.

[Article Key Summary]

-The Bitcoin NUPL 100-day exponential moving average has not yet fallen below 0, so no major bear market bottom signal has appeared.

-The percentage of Bitcoin addresses in a loss state is 34%, significantly lower than approximately 55% at the 2018 low and approximately 50% in 2022.

-Bitcoin has fallen 53% from its October 2025 peak of $126,200, but the possibility of a different trend from past on-chain indicators has also been raised.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*