Fed Officials "Will Raise Interest Rates Once This Year"...September Hike Probability in the 50s

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Half of the US Federal Reserve's policymakers expect at least one interest rate hike in 2026. With the possibility of a September rate hike also reflected at 50-55%, market attention is focused on the June meeting minutes.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet BeInCrypto on July 8 (local time), the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of its June 16-17 policy meeting at 2 PM (Eastern Time) today. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit his forecast in this interest rate outlook. The Fed's policy statement was also written in 130 words, with all phrases that would pre-empt future policy directions removed.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) froze the benchmark interest rate at 3.5-3.75% on June 17. This marks the fourth consecutive freeze. Nine of the 18 policymakers expected at least one interest rate hike in 2026, but Warsh did not provide a separate forecast.

The FOMC meeting was held before the release of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' June employment report. The June new jobs report, released afterward, showed 57,000 new jobs, the lowest level in four months. The probability of a September rate hike, as reflected by the CME FedWatch Tool, dropped from 66% before the employment report to approximately 50-55%.

During a press conference, Warsh stated, “We know that inflation has been significantly above the Fed's long-standing 2% target for over five years. Persistent high inflation is a burden on the American people. However, recent trends do not necessarily determine the future.” Since taking office, he has pursued a communication style that reduces the Fed's forward policy guidance.

Warsh also stated at the Sintra Policy Forum in July that the Fed should not be expected to comfortably accept inflation exceeding 2%. BeInCrypto reported that the June meeting minutes are a detailed record that will confirm the internal discussions of the FOMC surrounding interest rate hikes at that time.

[Article Key Summary]

-Nine of the 18 Fed policymakers expected at least one interest rate hike in 2026.

-June new jobs totaled only 57,000, and the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 66% to approximately 50-55%.

-The Fed's June meeting minutes are a detailed record that will confirm the internal discussions of the FOMC surrounding interest rate hikes.

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