If I had invested $1,000 on the first day of Bitcoin spot ETF launch, what would my bank balance be now in 2026?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©CoinReaders

An interesting analysis has emerged regarding how much profit an investor would have made if they had invested $1,000 with joyful cheers upon the launch of the first virtual asset spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), and how the results would have differed if they had directly purchased the asset itself instead of the ETF. According to the media, although the landscape of the asset market completely changed after the historic first spot ETF approval, it was found that directly purchasing the spot asset yielded higher returns than investing in an ETF due to factors such as fees.

According to Finbold, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on July 7 (local time), if one had invested $1,000 in Canada's Purpose Bitcoin CAD ETF, the world's first Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF, on its launch day, February 18, 2021, the current value of the position would have increased to $1,143.40. This means a profit of $143.40. This product started trading at 9.80 Canadian dollars ($6.89) on its first trading day and recently rose to 11.20 Canadian dollars ($7.88), recording a 14.34% increase since its launch.

On the other hand, the return on investment if Bitcoin spot was purchased directly during the same period significantly exceeded this. On the day the ETF was launched, BTC was trading at $51,679, but it has now risen by 22.47% to around $63,210. In other words, if the asset itself had been purchased directly instead of the Canadian ETF, the same $1,000 investment would have yielded a profit of $224.70, growing to a total of $1,224.70.

The situation is similar in the US Bitcoin spot ETF market, the world's largest economy. After a somewhat long journey, the US approved and launched approximately 12 spot ETFs simultaneously on January 11, 2024. In the case of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), which was converted from a past trust structure and thus has the longest history, if $1,000 had been invested at the time of its conversion to a spot ETF, it would currently show a return of 22.33%, with a total position value of $1,224.30 (a profit of $224.30).

However, this is also a disappointing performance compared to direct spot investment. This is because the price of BTC, which was around $46,402 at the time of the US ETF launch, has surged by 36.22% to date. Therefore, an analysis suggests that if an individual had directly bought and held cryptocurrency, the $1,000 investment would have generated a "pure" profit of $362.20, growing the asset to a plump $1,362.20.

Experts' opinions are divided on the actual impact of spot ETFs on Bitcoin prices. Prominent figures such as Michael Saylor of Strategy argue that the advent of ETFs has virtually ended the typical 4-year halving cycle of the past, while some interpret the recent downturn as an extension of historical repeating patterns. What is clear is that institutional financial institutions' attitude towards virtual assets has completely changed since the ETF approval, and major banks are continuously presenting optimistic target prices, fueling the market to prevent its flame from dying out.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*