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▲ Cryptocurrency regulation, cryptocurrency law, US Securities and Exchange Commission/AI generated image
The US cryptocurrency market structure bill, which missed its July 4th target, now faces a new deadline of August 7th. With the seven Democratic votes needed for Senate passage still not secured, the probability of it becoming law by 2026 has dropped from 55% to 47%, making a vote in the summer session a major turning point.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Coingape on July 6th (local time), the US cryptocurrency market structure bill failed to meet its original target of being signed by July 4th. The Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee are coordinating the content of their respective bills, and there is a possibility that a floor vote will take place after the Senate returns from recess on July 13th. The last date to release the final draft before the summer recess is August 7th.
There are two key issues hindering the bill's passage. Republicans need the support of at least seven Democratic members to secure the 60 votes required for the bill's processing, but ethical standards intertwined with former US President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency income have not yet been resolved. The debate over the extent to which products offered by cryptocurrency platforms should be regulated is another reason for the voting delay.
There has been a shift in the stance of investigative agencies and law enforcement groups. The Major County Sheriffs of America withdrew its opposition to the decentralized finance (DeFi) provisions and returned to neutrality. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives also expressed support for the bill. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott publicly urged a vote before the August recess.
On the prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of the bill becoming law by 2026 was assessed at 47%. After the draft was not released by July 4th, the probability decreased from 55% to 47%, and the expectations, which had soared to about 85% in early March, also significantly declined. Although the bill is not automatically discarded if it is not processed by August 7th, Coingape reported that market analysts view the possibility of it becoming law by 2026 as low if it fails to pass this summer.
The US cryptocurrency market structure bill still has challenges ahead: coordinating bills from the Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee, securing seven Democratic votes, and reaching an agreement on ethical standards and the scope of cryptocurrency platform regulation. Amid the easing opposition from law enforcement groups and ongoing calls for a vote from senators, the Senate has until August 7th to decide whether to release the final draft.
[Article Summary]
-The US cryptocurrency market structure bill missed its July 4th target, and August 7th has been set as the deadline for releasing the final draft before the summer recess.
-Republicans need the support of at least seven Democratic members to secure the 60 votes required for Senate passage.
-Polymarket's probability of the bill becoming law by 2026 has dropped from 55% to 47%, a significant decline from its peak of approximately 85% in early March.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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