Bitcoin (BTC), even whales are reducing inflows...a trap of a short-term sharp rebound?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

The focus for Bitcoin (BTC) is shifting not to $64,000, but to the $60,400-$60,900 range. Warnings that a short-term uptrend could reverse towards lower lows if broken, and analyses that a breakthrough of $65,000 is a turning point for a trend reversal, are clashing simultaneously.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on July 6 (local time), Bitcoin recorded a high of $63,960 during the weekly close, its highest since June 23. Crypto short position liquidations slightly exceeded $100 million in 24 hours. Trader Killa identified $60,400-$60,900 as Bitcoin's "most critical zone," warning that "if it fails to hold this price range when tested again, it could immediately revert to a trend towards lower lows."

The US stock market has emerged as another variable surrounding Bitcoin's rebound. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, and the S&P 500 index climbed 15% in the second quarter, but failed to set new highs after its early June peak. The Kobeissi Letter assessed that retail investor risk appetite is at "all-time highs," citing short-term options demand. This week, the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and additional employment data are scheduled.

Voices of caution regarding a stock market correction also emerged. Andre Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, stated that BCA Research's MacroQuant Equity Risk Model is flashing bearish warning signals. This indicator showed a similar pattern to late 2021, when Bitcoin recorded its previous bull market peak. However, Dragosch assessed that "even if an AI collapse and subsequent US recession materialize, significant pain appears to have already been priced into Bitcoin," and saw a possibility that Bitcoin could relatively outperform Nasdaq in the coming months.

Exchange inflow data showed a cooling trend in selling pressure from both retail investors and whales. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha stated that the 30-day moving average of Binance whale inflows has decreased by approximately $2.4 billion since mid-June. Retail investor inflows also dropped from $10.02 billion on June 12 to $8.2 billion on July 6. The gap between retail and whale inflows expanded from approximately $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion, and Taha highlighted that the key is whether whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded 24, more than double its level in early July, nearing an escape from the "extreme fear" zone that lasted over a month. Trader Master of Crypto assessed that "fear is easing, but not gone." Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian stated that "a successful breakthrough of $65,000 opens the way to test the 100-day moving average, currently around $69,500." The Bitcoin market is gauging its next direction around two price points: support at $60,400-$60,900 and a breakthrough of $65,000.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin rebounded to $63,960, with $60,400-$60,900 identified as a key support zone.

-Binance whale inflows decreased by approximately $2.4 billion since mid-June, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recovered to 24.

-The success of breaking through $65,000 was presented as the key gateway to testing the 100-day moving average near $69,500.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*