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Upbit's Trading Volume Has Dried Up... XRP and Bitcoin in a 'Wait-and-See Market', When Will It End?
▲ Upbit coin market in a trading cliff / AI generated image ©
The domestic cryptocurrency market has once again fallen into a 'trading cliff'. While Bitcoin recovered 95 million won and some altcoins rebounded, trading volume has actually decreased. Analysts suggest that investors' wait-and-see attitude is deepening as the market's basic formula – that trading should recover before prices – is being shaken.
According to Upbit Datalab as of 7:22 AM on July 6th, the daily trading volume fell below 800 billion won to 781.369 billion won. The 24-hour trading volume also remained at 838.943 billion won, showing a significant contraction compared to recent months. Based on Upbit prices, Bitcoin recovered the 95 million won mark at 95,522,000 won, and Ethereum also showed an upward trend, but trading volume did not support this. In the trading volume distribution, XRP recorded the highest proportion at 10.03%, but the absolute inflow of funds itself significantly decreased.
The market interprets this phenomenon not as a simple price adjustment but as a 'disappearance of liquidity'. The biggest reason is the continued uncertainty surrounding the timing of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With benchmark interest rates remaining high, funds flowing into risky assets are limited, and both institutional and individual investors are opting for a strategy of maintaining a higher cash proportion rather than aggressive buying. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the potential for fluctuations in international oil prices are also cited as factors restricting investment sentiment in risky assets.
The recent AI bubble debate, spreading mainly in the US stock market, is also a burden on the cryptocurrency market. Concerns are reflected that if the controversy surrounding the high valuations of large AI-related tech stocks grows, investment sentiment across risky assets could be dampened. As cryptocurrencies have also shown a strong tendency to move as risky assets alongside the AI theme in recent years, investors appear to be waiting for events to unfold rather than actively making new entries.
Notably, both XRP and Bitcoin show a clear decrease in trading volume. XRP still maintains the top position in Upbit's trading proportion, but it is not showing the explosive increase in trading volume seen in the past. Bitcoin's price has recovered to 95 million won, but trading is not following, limiting its upward momentum. The market is concerned that a rebound without trading volume is likely to lack sustainability.
However, there is also a view that a decrease in trading is not necessarily a negative signal. This could be a temporary wait-and-see period for investors ahead of macroeconomic events that will determine major trends. If uncertainty about US monetary policy eases in the future and global liquidity flows back into risky assets, the current low trading volume could even be the starting point for a strong trend. Conversely, if the decrease in trading volume prolongs, there is also a forecast that major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and XRP, are likely to continue in a limited sideways market.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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