XRP (Ripple), 12-Year Worst Loss Period...Buy or Trap?

▲ XRP/AI-generated image

XRP has entered its deepest loss period in its 12-year history. Currently, technical buy signals and bearish warnings are clashing head-on.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on July 3 (local time), the average return for XRP investors has entered an unprecedented period of pain in the token's 12-year history. Santiment data shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for 30 days is -45%, and the MVRV for 365 days is -47%. This structure means both short-term and long-term holders are simultaneously incurring losses.

Santiment stated, “If the cryptocurrency market continues to slump, prices may fall a bit further, but from a risk-reward perspective, a strategy of buying or adding XRP now carries much lower risk than average.” They explained that significant downward pressure has already been absorbed by other investors. Santiment added, “The best buying opportunities often appear when the public experiences maximum pain from both an on-chain and sentiment perspective.”

However, not all analyses point solely to a bottom signal. Some market observers noted that XRP is showing a similar pattern to the March phase, and the trend of falling below the 20-week exponential moving average after a cycle high has historically acted as a bearish signal. Crypto analyst ChartNerd analyzed, “A relief rally from the $1 low is possible, but the overall trend is still downwards.”

Expectations for a rebound came from technical indicators. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that the SuperTrend indicator gave a buy signal for XRP for the first time since mid-June. The previous SuperTrend buy signal appeared before a 14% rise, and the same indicator also has a record of previously detecting 19% and 16% declines in advance.

In terms of price structure, XRP needs to convincingly recover $1.10 for a short-term rebound scenario to gain traction. Bearish observers believe that a recovery to $1.35, where the 20-week exponential moving average is located, is necessary to confirm a trend reversal. Conversely, if selling pressure continues and the key support level around $1 falters, there is a risk of falling below $0.90.

[Article Key Summary]

-XRP has entered the most extreme loss period in its 12-year history, with a 30-day MVRV of -45% and a 365-day MVRV of -47%.

-Santiment diagnosed that the buying risk might be lower than average in periods where investor pain is maximized.

-Despite the SuperTrend buy signal, XRP needs to confirm recoveries to $1.10 and $1.35 to escape its bearish structure.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*