XRP (Ripple): Bear Market Isn't Over... $1 Collapse if 'This' Breaks

▲ Photo: XRP

XRP is attempting a rebound in July. However, if the Fibonacci 1.0 retracement line, which has supported the entire bull market, breaks down, it faces a critical juncture where it could fall below $1.

According to crypto media outlet The Crypto Basic on July 3 (local time), XRP started around $1.05 in the second week of November 2024 and rose to an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. However, it gradually gave back its gains over the subsequent 11 months and is currently hovering just above the Fibonacci 1.0 retracement line of $1.00795, near $1.1.

At the end of June, XRP fell to $1.009, testing the $1 level most strongly since November 2024. The $1.00795 level represents a retracement back to the starting point of this upward cycle, and its defense on a weekly closing basis has been presented as a key variable for maintaining the bullish structure.

During the 11-month decline since August 2025, XRP sequentially gave up the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement line at $2.65117, the 0.618 retracement line at $2.02366, the 0.786 retracement line at $1.57696, and the 0.888 retracement line at $1.30575. These zones have now turned into resistance levels, and if it falls below $1.00795, the $0.8-$0.9 range is mentioned as a short-term defense line.

The downtrend is also still pressuring the price. XRP recently rose to a weekly high of $1.11 but slightly retreated to $1.09969, failing to decisively break above the downtrend line that began from its July 2025 peak. Based on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the conversion line is at $1.27885 and the base line is at $1.71205, indicating that the rebound trend has not yet been confirmed as a trend reversal.

The first weekly candle in July started at $1.04646, rose to $1.11, showing a 5.07% increase. Inflows into XRP spot ETFs also recorded positive figures for 8 consecutive weeks, with weekly inflows on June 26 totaling $22.99 million and cumulative net inflows reaching $1.47 billion. Exchange outflows also increased by approximately 200%, from 40.7 million XRP on June 22 to approximately 123 million XRP thereafter.

For XRP to continue its recovery, it must first overcome the Fibonacci 0.888 retracement line at $1.30575 and the conversion line at $1.27885. After that, the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement line at $1.57696 is presented as the next hurdle. However, the current price is below the 20-day exponential moving average of $1.11, the 50-day exponential moving average of $1.20, the 100-day exponential moving average of $1.31, and the 200-day exponential moving average of $1.52, meaning it needs to overcome several resistance levels to confirm a sustained recovery.

[Key Summary of the Article]

-XRP is testing whether it can maintain its bullish structure above the Fibonacci 1.0 retracement line of $1.00795.

-After reaching an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025, it declined for 11 months, sequentially losing key Fibonacci support levels.

-XRP spot ETFs have recorded fund inflows for 8 consecutive weeks, but the price remains below key moving averages, facing a burden for recovery.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*