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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
As Bitcoin (BTC) recovered $60,000 again in the first trading session of July, after a bearish June, market attention shifted to the sustainability of the short-term rebound. With $100 million worth of short positions liquidated in four hours, spot buying and expectations of US regulatory easing emerged simultaneously, bringing a new sense of tension to the cryptocurrency market.
Crypto-focused YouTube channel Altcoin Daily diagnosed in a video uploaded on July 2 (local time) that Bitcoin ended June with its lowest monthly candle since September 2024. However, as Bitcoin rose above $60,000 on the first day of July, approximately $100 million worth of short positions were liquidated in four hours, and the video did not view this movement as a simple short squeeze. Altcoin Daily commented, “The initial rise started with short liquidations, but spot demand is also supporting the price movement,” adding, “As long as spot demand remains, the momentum can continue.”
Changes in the US regulatory environment are also a key rebound factor presented in the video. Paul Atkins, a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said, “The President ordered the US to become the world’s crypto capital, and we are doing that.” He explained that in the past, regulators viewed digital assets themselves as a problem, but now the direction is changing to bring innovative companies that have left overseas back into the US legal system. Hester Peirce, another U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissioner, also expressed optimism about the US crypto market structure bill, stating, “I am still optimistic that it will be processed this summer,” and “Both the House and the Senate have spent a lot of time on it, and work is still ongoing.”
Chart trends are still too early to indicate a complete bullish reversal. The video pointed out that Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, so the short-term structure is still bearish. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to a record low, and a bullish divergence has appeared, increasing the possibility of an oversold rebound. The technical turning points are clear. If $58,000 breaks, $55,000 is the next support level, and a recovery of $62,500 is needed for a short-term bullish reversal. After that, the recovery of the 200-day moving average at $62,400 and the resistance level at $64,000 were presented as gateways for further upside.
There was also an argument that cycle indicators point to the possibility of the final phase of a bear market. The video explained that the long-term holder cost basis is rising from around $49,000, and the short-term holder cost basis is falling from around $69,000. At the current pace, the two cost bases could meet in about 14 weeks, an interpretation that such a structure appeared at the end of past Bitcoin bear markets. Altcoin Daily said of this period, “The next approximately 14 weeks could be very similar to the same point in past cycles.”
Political and macroeconomic variables are simultaneously fueling market expectations and controversy. The video analyzed US President Donald Trump’s financial disclosure data, claiming that Trump earned $1.1 billion from cryptocurrencies. Specific items presented include $600 million from Trump memecoins, $200 million from World Liberty Finance token sales, approximately $200 million from stablecoin stake sales, $65 million from partial sales of World Liberty Finance, $6 million from Melania NFT sales, and $1.2 million from Ethereum staking. The video also stated that Trump holds over $100 million in Bitcoin and $55 million worth of Ethereum (ETH). Regarding Federal Reserve officials’ remarks, it assessed that while a July interest rate cut is unlikely, optimism about the US economy and AI productivity could support risk asset sentiment.
[Key Article Summary]
-Altcoin Daily analyzed that Bitcoin increased its rebound potential based on $100 million worth of short liquidations and spot demand in early July, after a bearish close in June.
-Remarks by Paul Atkins and Hester Peirce were presented as signals that the US regulatory environment is becoming more favorable to cryptocurrencies.
-Technically, $58,000 and $55,000 are the lower defense lines, and whether $62,500 and $64,000 are recovered is a key criterion for a trend reversal.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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