Bitcoin (BTC) Rebounds After Worst June... Analyst: "Falls to $52,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

After Bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC) experienced its worst June since 2022, the possibility of a drop to $52,000 has been raised. Accordingly, the market's debate over the bottom is narrowing between the 200-week moving average and the realized price.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on July 2 (local time), Bitcoin closed the month of June down 20.5% at $58,526. This marks its worst monthly performance since June 2022, and although Bitcoin closed below its 200-week moving average at $62,000, it remained above the realized price of $52,000.

Crypto analyst PlanB, who created the stock-to-flow pricing model, analyzed that this combination is a sign that the bear market bottom has not yet arrived. PlanB stated, “All past bear market bottoms formed below the realized price,” and suggested that Bitcoin could fall to $52,000. If this decline materializes, Bitcoin would have fallen by approximately 60% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded last October.

PlanB noted that while Bitcoin is currently priced lower than its value, the possibility of further declines cannot be ruled out. He said, “The current price is much lower than its value, and it could actually go even lower, below the realized price,” adding, “Bitcoin is undervalued, but it can go lower.” Realized price is an on-chain metric that represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins, calculated based on the price at which each unspent transaction last moved.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue Research Institute, described the structure where the June closing price was above the realized price and below the 200-week moving average as “a signal that, based on previous cycles, the bear market bottom is still ahead.” He explained that while the current cycle's correction might be shallower than in the past due to institutional participation, he is watching for a capitulation phase by the end of 2026.

Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, diagnosed that the correction around $60,000 is approaching a potential bottoming zone, and there is a high possibility that strong historical and technical support will form around $55,000 if further declines occur. Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, also pointed out that the second half of US midterm election years, like 2018 and 2022, has historically led to accumulation phases or market cycle bottoms. Bitcoin is undergoing a fierce test to confirm its bear market bottom, caught between the $52,000 realized price, the $55,000 support level, and the $62,000 200-week moving average.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June, closing at $58,526, recording its worst monthly performance since June 2022.

-PlanB suggested the possibility of a drop to $52,000, based on Bitcoin closing below the 200-week moving average and above the realized price.

-Market experts consider the $55,000 support level and the potential for an accumulation phase in the second half of US midterm election years as key variables for determining the bottom.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*