Circle (CRCL) Not Dead Yet Amidst OpenUSD Offensive...Bernstein "200% Upside Possible"

▲ Circle, USDC, Stablecoin, USD/ChatGPT generated image

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) was shaken by the double whammy of OpenUSD (OUSD)'s emergence and its exclusion from the Russell Growth Index. However, Bernstein presented the possibility of a more than 200% rise, bolstering the potential for a counterattack by the leading stablecoin.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet The Street on July 1 (local time), Bernstein maintained its outperform rating for Circle Internet Group and reaffirmed its price target of $190. Circle is a cryptocurrency company well-known for USDC, which is considered a key pillar of the dollar-pegged stablecoin market along with USDT.

Competitive pressure has increased. On June 30, OpenUSD was launched with the participation of over 140 companies, including BlackRock (BLK), Coinbase (COIN), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Aptos Labs. The Street reported that OpenUSD could attract a significant number of stablecoin users by leveraging its revenue-sharing model.

On the same day, Circle also received the news of its exclusion from the Russell 1000 Growth Index, Russell 3000 Growth Index, and Russell Midcap Growth Index. Concerns grew that funds tracking these indexes might reduce their exposure to Circle stock, causing Circle's stock price to start at $72.25 on June 30 and close at $62.63, a drop of over 13%.

Bernstein viewed the scale of the OpenUSD alliance as proof of the stablecoin market's growth itself, but not an immediate threat to Circle's position. Bernstein stated that USDC accounts for approximately 28% of the dollar-pegged stablecoin currency base, and an analysis of Visa's on-chain data revealed that it processed $5.3 trillion in the second quarter of this year alone. USDC's transaction volume share also increased from approximately 40% in 2025 to approximately 60% currently this year, and surged by approximately 140% compared to the overall processing speed in 2025.

Bernstein interpreted Coinbase's cooperation with OpenUSD not as an intention to deviate from USDC, but as a strategy to broaden mainstream stablecoin adoption. It also noted that Coinbase accounts for 25% of USDC holdings on its platform, and Hyperliquid and Polymarket are also contributing to the Circle ecosystem. This is the background against which Bernstein maintained its $190 price target despite increased competition and the shock of index exclusion.

[Article Key Summary]

-Circle Internet Group fell more than 13% on June 30 due to the launch of OpenUSD and news of its exclusion from the Russell Growth Index.

-Bernstein maintained its outperform rating and $190 price target for Circle, suggesting an upside potential of over 200%.

-USDC processed $5.3 trillion in the second quarter of this year alone, and its transaction volume share increased from approximately 40% last year to approximately 60% currently this year.

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