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▲ Iran, U.S., Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©
Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $61,000 mark as investor sentiment improved following news of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. However, analysis suggests that further confirmation is needed to determine if the uptrend will continue, given the ongoing selling pressure from institutional investors and the remaining variables of US employment figures and interest rates.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on July 2 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 after falling to a 21-month low of $57,800 the previous day. The media reported that news of "positive progress" in indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in Doha, Qatar, stimulated risk asset preference, leading to Bitcoin's rebound. The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that both sides have advanced key agenda items related to the June ceasefire memorandum and are seeking a more sustainable peace agreement based on the outcomes of the recent Swiss summit. US President Donald Trump also evaluated that there had been significant progress regarding limitations on Iran's nuclear program.
However, institutional investors' sentiment remains subdued. According to SoSoValue's aggregation, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $294.62 million in a single day on Wednesday, marking 10 consecutive trading days of capital outflow. FXStreet analyzed that if this net outflow trend continues, it could act as additional downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
The next variable for the market is US employment figures. The US Department of Labor is scheduled to release June's non-farm payrolls (NFP) today, and the market is watching the possibility of a hawkish monetary policy stance being maintained under Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Previously, ADP private employment increased by only 98,000, falling short of market expectations of 113,000, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slowed from 54 to 53.3. Conversely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in approximately a 63% chance of a rate hike in September and about an 84% chance of a rate hike by year-end. Chair Kevin Warsh, not Paul Atkins, also reconfirmed his stance on maintaining the 2% inflation target, curbing expectations for early easing.
Technically, despite the rebound, a long-term bearish trend persists. Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) of $66,170, $69,972, and $75,913, respectively. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) re-entered positive territory, suggesting an attempt at a rebound, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained around 40, signaling that upward momentum is not yet strong. FXStreet projected that $64,004 is the first resistance level, and if broken, the 50-day EMA of $66,170 would be the next hurdle. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to recover $64,000, the possibility of further correction to the psychological support level of $55,000 cannot be ruled out.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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