Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims $60,000... Short-Term Rebound Continuation Hinges on 'Here'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency Wallet / ChatGPT Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully achieved a short-term rebound, reclaiming the $60,000 mark. However, as this recovery was driven by expectations for US monetary policy and technical rebound buying, whether it can break past $62,450 will be the first test for sustained rebound.

According to CoinMarketCap's real-time price chart on July 2 (local time), Bitcoin rose by 2.66% over 24 hours to record $60,629.68. The 24-hour trading volume was aggregated at $39.291 billion. Based on real-time financial data, the intraday low was $58,279, and the intraday high was $61,030.

The primary background for this rebound is the change in expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum on July 1 that inflation risks have recently eased. The market interpreted these remarks as a signal of easing concerns about aggressive tightening, leading to an inflow of buying interest into Bitcoin, a risk asset. The fact that Bitcoin showed a 68% correlation with Gold also indicates that this movement was more sensitive to macroeconomic variables than individual coin specific factors.

Technical rebound also amplified the gains. Bitcoin rebounded after confirming support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $60,655. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 37.26, close to oversold territory, leaving room for short-term buying. Additionally, $120.82 million in short positions were liquidated over 24 hours, while long position liquidations amounted to only $26.67 million, with a short squeeze amplifying the rebound.

However, there is still a burden in definitively calling this recovery a trend reversal. Bitcoin rebounded after falling to around its 2026 low of $57,735 and has climbed back above the $60,000 psychological support level. But if it fails to reclaim $62,450, where the 20-day exponential moving average is located, the rebound could merely be a retracement within the $58,000 to $60,000 range.

Key variables for the future market outlook include US employment figures and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, attempts to re-break $62,450 may continue. Conversely, if it gives up $60,000 again, the possibility of retesting the annual low of $58,000 increases. As there was a net outflow of $4.5 billion from US Bitcoin spot ETFs in June, whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows is also an important condition for confirming a bottom.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin recorded $60,629.68, up 2.66% over 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

-Fed Chairman Warsh's remarks on easing inflation risks, support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and the liquidation of $120.82 million in short positions led the rebound.

-Defending $60,000 and the ability to break $62,450 are key variables for the continuation of the short-term recovery.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*