Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Rule, Will It Hold True This Time Too?

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Amidst diagnoses that Bitcoin (BTC) is faithfully following its unique 4-year cycle, specific predictions that it will renew its all-time high in the upcoming year 2029 are drawing the attention of investors.

According to crypto media Watcher.Guru on June 17 (local time), Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, diagnosed in a conversation with Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, that Bitcoin is likely to be close to its bottom. The expert cited the excessively widespread negative investor sentiment in the market and gradually decreasing selling pressure as reasons, predicting that Bitcoin could reclaim the $70,000 mark by July of this year.

Historically, Bitcoin has repeated a pattern of reaching new highs every four years, followed by a correction. After breaking the $68,000 mark in 2021 to record its highest price, it recently soared to $126,080 exactly four years later, setting a new all-time high. If this trend continues, the next historical high is expected to be reached in 2029, with the full-scale recovery phase towards a new peak anticipated to begin around 2027.

Scaramucci explained that if the 4-year cycle pattern holds true, Bitcoin's full-scale trend recovery could continue into early Q4 2026 or, at the latest, Q1 2027. Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark earlier this month due to higher-than-expected US inflation figures and escalating conflict between the US and Iran, but the market has recently stopped its decline and is showing some signs of reversal.

Experts anticipate inflation to slow down in the coming months, bolstered by the resolution of peace agreements in the Middle East and a drop in international oil prices. If inflation indicators stabilize, the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates increases, which typically stimulates capital inflow into risk assets, acting as a strong positive catalyst for Bitcoin. Furthermore, the possibility of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, passing is growing, and if the bill is enacted, it is expected to restore confidence among retail traders, leading to substantial capital inflows.

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