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▲ XRP, Cryptocurrency Security/AI Generated Image
As XRP faces a May closing loss despite its highest level of ETF inflows in 2026, the June market has entered a highly tense period where the possibility of a $1.26 collapse and a short squeeze explosion are clashing.
According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on May 28 (local time), XRP is set to close May with a 6.19% decline. The US spot XRP ETF saw a net inflow of $118.29 million in May, marking the strongest monthly inflow since 2026. This surpassed the $81.59 million net inflow in April and is a complete reversal from the $31.16 million net outflow in March.
Despite the influx of ETF funds, the price moved in the opposite direction. BeInCrypto pointed out that it is difficult to explain XRP's price movement solely with ETF inflows. XRP's monthly movements in 2026 have been similar to historical median values, and the historical median return for June since 2014 is -8.49%. Over the past decade, June has closed higher only three times.
The chart structure is also increasing market tension. XRP has been moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern since early February. This pattern formed immediately after the price plunged by 53.84% from late January to early February. Symmetrical triangles often follow the preceding direction, making them fundamentally a structure where downward pressure is dominant. XRP has attempted to break through the upper trendline several times since March but failed, and after the most significant rejection on May 13, it is currently testing the lower trendline.
However, on-chain indicators showed the opposite signal. Glassnode's exchange net position change indicator entered a deeper negative territory, from approximately -$484 million in mid-May to recently around -$1.34 billion. BeInCrypto analyzed that this trend indicates a steady increase in buy-the-dip pressure despite technical weakness. Indeed, after similar negative trends in late February and early April, XRP recorded peaks in mid-March and mid-April, respectively.
In the leveraged market, an even more extreme bias was observed. According to the 30-day XRP liquidation map for Binance USDT perpetual contracts, cumulative short liquidation leverage is $227.10 million, and cumulative long liquidation leverage is $24.04 million. Short positions account for approximately 90% of the leveraged liquidation volume. While the market is leaning towards a downside breakout of the symmetrical triangle in June, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short squeeze could occur, with short position liquidation buying pressure rushing in all at once.
XRP's trajectory in June will be determined between $1.26 and $1.46. If the closing price on the 2nd falls below $1.26, a downside breakout of the symmetrical triangle will be confirmed. Conversely, if a rebound begins, Fibonacci 0.236 retracement at $1.36, Fibonacci 0.382 retracement at $1.41, and Fibonacci 0.5 retracement at $1.46 will successively become key resistance levels. Particularly above $1.46, short liquidation leverage is concentrated, making it a critical price level for accelerating upward movement if broken. A daily close above $1.51 would confirm an upside breakout of the triangle, opening the path to $1.58 and $1.67 thereafter.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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